The crypto bear market has lasted nearly 11 months, and for all intents and purposes, seems to be accelerating at the moment. Bitcoin logged another leg down overnight and this morning; crypto sentiment seems to be at 2014/2015 levels. Instead of bullish posts being all the rage, the latest crypto twitter meme seems to be rage tweets claiming portfolio destruction and leaving the space altogether.
Sounds perfect – to several tenured crypto traders and crypto hedge fund managers. The screeches and audible pain that is emitting from crypto ‘hodlers’ and traders sounds like the sentiment that occurs just before a turn and the makings of a quiet bull market floor forming.
In discussions with several traders and a couple of crypto hedge fund managers over the weekend, we gathered five good reasons why the next crypto bull run could be upon us. Let’s take a look:
- Institutional infrastructure breadth and depth: Beyond individual stories about Goldman Sachs, Fidelity or Bakkt – two hedge fund managers spoke extensively about the breadth of institutional involvement in crypto that is on its way to the markets. Goldman Sachs, Fidelity, DRW and TD Ameritrade (ErisX), BlackRock and Coinbase, Nasdaq, Bakkt and the NYSE, and on and on and on.
- OTC Markets are quietly robust: One trader told us that the volume on the OTC markets is at a turning point and volumes have recently spiked higher; and not for sellers, but for buyers. Smart money sees the 2018 bear market as an opportunity to buy ‘digital gold’ on the cheap and stash it away for a couple of years. If traditional markets weaken any further the OTC buyers dynamic will only increase and push Bitcoin prices higher.
- The SEC just gave muted guidance (via enforcement) that should embolden the tokenization movement: The latest enforcement actions by the SEC, scolding two separate ICO’s, provided further guidance to the tokenization movement and its actors. The short version is essentially this ‘ICO’s aren’t illegal, and we really don’t mind them, just check in with us, pursue registration, and you should be good.’ The ICO enforcement actions taken late last week amounted to small fines given how much those ICO’s raised. A virtual slap on the wrist. And neither announcement claimed fraud of any kind.
- Garbage alt-coins are being destroyed: One crypto hedge fund manager discussed Verge ($XVG) as an example of the kind of waste that needed to be burnt out of the ecosystem for the next bull run to begin, “…a token like Verge, built on nothing more than vaporware, hype, cringe partnerships, and stickers on rented lambos are what needed to go away before capital could consolidate and find it’s way back to the likes of projects that are serious and legitimate. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Monero, Stellar (and others) – these are teams that are legitimately attempting to build something that lasts and you can see money flows moving in that direction.”
- Bakkt arrives on January 24th: Bakkt brings serious force to the crypto markets by providing Tier 1 institutions the ability to accumulate and trade Bitcoin no differently than they trade gold, oil, natural gas, silver, copper, etc. Trading Bitcoin globally on the ICE exchange networks is 10x the size of CME and CBOE futures trading. The daily gold futures volume on global exchanges is routinely better than $200B. Yes, that is the DAILY volume. DAILY. The late 2017 bull run was somewhat fueled by the Bitcoin futures ramp up on the CME and CBOE. Expect a similar market reaction to Bakkt.
A look back to how some accomplished traders view Bakkt and its ability to curtail the bear market:
“Nothing else on the horizon comes close to what Bakkt will mean for Bitcoin. The depth and breadth of the ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) network and exchange ecosystem means that adoption/trading volumes will skyrocket overnight. The same pipes and structures that allow Goldman, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, among a horde of others, to trade billions in commodities like gold, silver, soybeans, and corn; will be the same architecture used to trade Bitcoin.”
“Think of it this way…with the custody and ‘warehouse facility’ solved inside of Bakkt’s infrastructure you have solved the final issue that institutions have been clamoring for in the digital asset space. Their Bitcoin transactions and investments are ‘safe’ via the warehouse facility, and the ability to go claim their Bitcoin straight from the warehouse should they allow their position to mature to that point.”
“Rather than ‘physical’ Bitcoin per se, you are getting access to Bitcoin being housed in an uber protected, heavily secure facility that will hold the digital asset as the backstop for Bitcoin. That is what the Novogratz’ of the world and Goldman and JPMorgan have been clamoring for.”
“While it would be interesting if Bakkt got the press it deserved, there really isn’t a single ‘name’ banking institution that could accompany them in a headline. And that is precisely the scale of the Bakkt story. The ramp up and volume with be enormous and lightning fast. Within months you will have billions of dollars in institutional cash running through Bakkt’s system, buying and selling Bitcoin.”
“This is ultimately the solution that the biggest players (within banking) want and need. And this move furthers the narrative of Bitcoin as a ‘store of value’ or ‘digital gold’.”
And a reminder regarding the reactions crypto hedge fund managers had to the Fidelity ‘digital assets’ initiative several weeks ago (that aims to compete with Bakkt):
“The rumors out there stem from Fidelity passing on taking a stake in Bakkt and then have run amok from there. They’ve been just as secretive about their build as Bakkt was for nearly two years leading up to their announcement. All we know is what we hear from a couple guys that work at Fidelity, but even that is vague and a wink and a smile. But as we see stuff leaked via the media in some way it makes sense that they would scale up. Bakkt has all the institutional pipes, but Fidelity has that same access, but a massive retail name that can tap millions of customers.”
“The real intrigue here is the rumor that Fidelity considers themselves to be crafting a real competitor to Bakkt. That is a mouthful if you ask me. Bakkt is leveraging fifty plus years worth of exchange infrastructure to establish Bitcoin as a standard and then offer products that evolve from there. Fidelity is said to be further along in the way they plan to leverage that same architecture. If that is true, and that is a big if, it only furthers adoption, and the crypto ecosystem wins. Still, lots of chatter about what could come from a name like Fidelity.”
Even Bank of America keeps grabbing crypto custody and blockchain patents by the armful:
“Describing its place and necessity in the future of financial services, the application reads, “As technology advances, financial transactions involving cryptocurrency have become more common. For some enterprises, it may be desirable to securely store cryptocurrency.” The Bank of America began its development of this online cryptocurrency vault system in 2014. So while top leaders at Bank of America have publicly derided Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general, actions speak louder than words. And they are preparing for the rollout of custody solutions, structured products, and payment systems. Book it.”
A bull run is coming…and if tenured traders are to be believed, it is just around the corner.