TICK BY TICK: Bitcoin Technicals Show Decreased Volatility, Yet Bullish Channel Emerges For Opportunistic Traders

Bitcoin overnight (US CST) trading brings slightly low volatility with about an 80 point range and keeps higher price levels. Yesterday’s trading broke the upside boundary at 6640 in addition to breaking several pattern boundaries.

– The short-term channel was broken at 6620.

– Although unbroken completely, the mid-scale expanding megaphone pattern lower tend line held firmly at 6520.

– A higher low was also registered at precisely 6525.

– Most importantly: The long-term bearish upper trend line(sloping dotted line across the chart) was finally broken for 2018 at 6620.

BTC now trades within a bullish channel that saw closed* candle resistance at 6700 but did manage to come close to the next true resistance level at 6800. 

As expected, retrace levels came close to the Rogue* analysis point of 6620 once again with a low at 6642 which is only 2 points away from guidance shown for over a week now. This higher low additionally created a retrace that took back 1/3 of the previous breakout leg up.

Analytics now show that a continuance of the uptrend would seek 6800 on the next leg up. This also coincides with the next true resistance point, which brings yet another test of this key level if BTC can maintain course without the continued downside.

Stochastic readings hourly point to higher levels as a pivot now occurs in the oversold(<20) region.

MACD remains negative but does so with slow negative growth. Mid Scale (4-hour) and daily shows positive momentum at the moment.

BTC is currently a buy short term to seek resistance and a hold mid-to-long term with downside protection remaining at 6520.

Futures Traders – trade the trend. The short-term trend is currently long as a higher low has been registered hourly. A break of the 6640 level will call for a pattern change upon candle close* below this point.

And this from yesterday afternoon, to round out the analysis…

Bitcoin overnight (US CST) finally sees a break of two out of three patterns at play, one of which is a major form. The lower trend line of the expanding megaphone(circled) at 6520 held firmly while BTC had 6600 in its sights. 

The convergence of patterns as discussed in previous Rogue* Analysis showed the uptrend still intact although struggling with consolidation. That consolidation came to completion in recent trading as price action broke the upside at the 6640 mark. 

This break also happens to make one major difference for BTC: the breaking of the long-term bearish trend line. This line now stands at 6624. Price currently remains trading near 6700 – roughly 50 points above the line at the moment.

The next test for BTC will come with the third hard test of 6800 if BTC can manage to remain in an uptrend short term. This will get a boost from the MA line mid-scale as well, which has managed to push BTC price point over the bearish threshold. 

The only reason for concern will come shorter scale with the hourly setup looking to retrace some. However, as discussed yesterday, a retrace move has some room to stay on top of the long-term upper trend line and additionally remains quite far from the next support level down at 6400. 

The current leg up has officially taken back more than 1/2 of the previous leg down(consolidation).

Stochastic readings continue to seek overbought(>80) levels. MACD remains positive as breakout volatility brings more buying power to push for a new recent high with the first stop at 6800 resistance. This is a key* level to obtain at this time.

BTC is currently a buy/hold with downside protection at roughly 6540 or lower, depending on risk tolerance.

Futures Traders – trade the trend. The short-term trend is long – watch for retrace pivot.