“The overall bear market remains active unless the upside is broken…”

Saturday crypto markets now prepare to react to the crossroad Bitcoin comes to in the next 48 hours of trading.

BTC overnight trading (US CST) once again bring very little price movement as volatility remains low, although an early evening spike briefly came close to resistance at 6800. Current price action is now boiling down to a breakpoint as several patterns at play draw dangerously near completion.

There is a microchannel active, as shown on the mid-scale (4-hour chart) which almost looks like an expanding megaphone. Then there is the actual expanding megaphone(white lines) which have consistently allowed BTC to hold higher lows. 

Finally, the long-term bear market upper trend line draws near.

Yesterday’s analysis gave two breakout points which remain active: 6460 on the downside, and 6640 on the upside. Along with the upside breakpoint, the microchannel which price trades in currently and the long-term trend line also converge today.

There are several risk factors to consider concerning the downside. The overall bear market remains active unless the upside is broken. This comes with the break of 6640 and also 6800 to become new support. 

However, this level was challenged twice previously and rejected(two circles). Additionally, the last 24 hours of trading looks to have brought a lower high as the spike in price eventually was rejected by resistance again at 6800 and closed below the long-term upper trend line – all in one candle.

MACD momentum remains negative and is set to cross to the downside.

Stochastic readings continue to seek oversold (<20) territory.

BTC is currently a No Play until breakout confirmation of the trend. Risk remains High.

Short Term: Sideways price action is to be expected as patterns ready to finish.