Bitcoin has now begun to retrace as the Rogue* Wave track laid out continues to perform as expected. Overnight (US CST) trading held BTC to a tight range – less than 100 points to be precise while looking at the mid-scale chart. The sell signal given at 6800 resistance was the end target for BTC before attempting to retrace, and so far price has done exactly so. Now trading at about 6685, BTC is only just over 100 points down from the selling point, a sign that it is attempting to hold higher price levels near resistance while still a far cry from 6400 major support. This, however, is not a signal to re-enter quite yet. There are still a couple of factors to consider.
Bitcoin has finally broken out of the trading channel. Still holding with no downside protection hit (stop). Good news for holders this AM as BTC trades at resistance near 6800. Hourly shows clear indication of the uptrend still being intact, as well as the mid-term scale (4-hour).
Taking into account that the previous leg up consolidated into a flag-like pattern, the fact that yesterday’s trading held downside to specifically less than 1/2 of the previous leg down, BTC Rogue* Wave Analysis showed the upside break at 6615 – which occurred in a timely manner as well. This leg up, however, is overextended, and as the mid-term chart shows, there is a flat line at current price showing hard resistance at the 6800 mark.
Bitcoin overnight (US CST) has traded at a level-off point as it has struggled to break through the 6600 mark, which has revealed itself as a price point that has acted somewhat as a support/resistance area. However, actual support and resistance currently stand at 6400 and 6800. There has been a range of about 250 points, from 6450 to 6700 that BTC has traded within over the past week or so, and this has shown the consistent tests of support as brief touches of the 6400 mark and a solid pullback showing an effective Rogue* Wave pattern were completed. Notice the 5-wave form of BTC as well, as the price has also struggled to break higher. This technically should be continued with the retracement (if the trend continues up) and should re-test support once again.
Bitcoin overnight (US CST) managed to re-test the 6400 support level once again – a sign that the struggle to go up inside of this short-term uptrend has presented itself. This is the second major test of this support level. Now as price trends sideways, BTC has begun to build something of a “sideways” trend channel. There are two things to keep in mind at this point. First, the Rogue* Wave target at 6800 has also been tested once already. Secondly, looking at the hourly scale(shown), BTC still trends up – even if slightly – with higher highs and higher lows technically. Neither a major support nor a price low or pivot from the privies legs in recent price action has yet to be broken. However, downside protection should still be placed underneath support.
Bitcoin has been moving sideways and refuses to test any support/resistance levels in the last couple of days, since the last test of support at 6400. The previous Rogue Wave pivot did attain the 6800 mark, and gave a hard bounce as soon as it was achieved. Now looking at a slow sort of retrace, BTC currently trades at 6585 as it drops slightly below the MA(moving average) line. The previous day or so price range has been about 150 points, and there has been much indecision as shown by multiple doji’s or candles within said range.
Bitcoin now shows yesterday’s movement to be on track exactly to Rogue* Wave expectation as the retrace movement has now bounced at the support level shown. 6450 is the 1/2 retracement point of the previous leg up, and as stochastic took a dive on the four-hour scale, BTC managed to keep the level at that point and show that 6400 still maintains support and 6450 is surely the pivot area. Now, what comes next will determine if the uptrend is here to stay.
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Bitcoin has finally made a short-term jump to create a solid foundation above the 6k level. After heading up and breaking 6k, the 6400 resistance level was broken to become support once again. The Rogue* Wave pattern, as discussed yesterday, was fully deployed as the first leg up creating the higher high with the bounce off of 6400, then gave the 1/2 retrace leg to create the higher low. The pivot area left the gap open for entry at 6325 (roughly) and allowed for a 300 point run as an exit strategy would have made for a solid trade.
Bitcoin in US (CST) overnight trading performs as expected with a breakout from standstill levels. After reaching new recent heights by breaking back above 6k and then 6400, BTC now solidifies that post at it holds 6400 as support along with the major support level at 6k. The pullback after the first run up was completely made whole as the first Rogue* Wave retracement point was also hit, just shy of about 20 points. The initial target was at 6240, while yesterday BTC managed to briefly take the 6260 mark. This is 1/3 retracement of the previous leg up, a confirmation of a higher low in conjunction with a wave completion. Additionally, the drawdown was held to a minimum during the last day’s selloff, which indicated that buying power has held strong and continues to drive BTC to seek out the next level of resistance at 6800.
Bitcoin continues to attempt to stay in the 6k mid-region as the weekend moves on. Currently trading at 6300, support now lies at 6k next with hard resistance at 6400. The recent breakdown over the last several hours, mainly US (CST) overnight trading has led price to remain stagnant for the most part. Now seeking a retracement point, the two options pointed out yesterday still remain for BTC to find a pivot base. 6240 and just below at about 6120 remain.