Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Consider Taking Profits, Retracement Looks To Offer Better Entry Points

Bitcoin has broken the long-term upper trend line which held BTC in a complete downtrend for the entire year 2018. Now trading at 8200, not only is the trend line (as shown) on every scale broken to the upside, but support holds firm at 8k. This is also the first time since May that BTC has traded in the 8k region. The importance of this is also seen in the way BTC broke through, which came with almost zero givebacks.

Rogue* Wave Analysis shows how the extended inverse head-and-shoulders came to break price to its current levels and give BTC a bull run trend chance as it broke the upper bounds of the downtrend. Now, BTC must aim to hold proper support and stay above previous lows. As 8k currently stands as the next support down, danger still lurks as this is just a stone’s throw away from the current price that looks to retrace. Yes, sometimes price must retrace, and this may be a good point.
As stochastic is overbought (>80) on every scale and the MA (moving average) line has pushed BTC to its limits several times, it now seeks to find lower levels once again by leaving this zone. This would be a solid take profit point as Rogue* Waves shows two scenarios: First that BTC could retrace to 7800, and second would be the 7200 level. Not only do these serve as solid supports, but are both less than 1/2 of the previous leg up and would allow BTC to give a proper test for the continuation of the trend up. The best scenario would be a reset of the long-term trend line support.
MACD looks to cross to the downside, and trading has slack.
BTC is currently a Sell with opportunity for buyback lower after a retracement.
Futures Traders- trade the trend. The short-term trend is currently short.

If Bitcoin Tests And Holds 8k Support, Expect Even More Upside (when moon sir?)

Bitcoin continues with strong upward momentum in US (CST) overnight trading as speculation drives BTC to break the long-term trend line. This line (top dotted line) shows the downward trajectory that BTC has sustained perfectly within its bounds since last year after peaking near 20k. Now looking at a solid test of this line, BTC trades at 8180, holding the 8k solid support area. This will likely be retested as well considering this is about the area that the long-term trendline converges with the price. A hold above this line will solidify BTC’s attempt to turn a long-term bear market into a raging bull. This coincidentally collides with much chatter about BTC ETF’s getting clearance for possible retail use fairly soon.

As resistance to the upside was clearly broken at the 8k mark, the attempt by BTC to hold higher prices will also be challenged by today’s Rogue* Wave Analysis. This shows the 8400 level giving hard resistance as well as the next resistance point up, and even more pressure at 8600 as this was a major pivot area for BTC. Additionally, the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that BTC made the turnaround with at the bottom sees the pattern complete at the current level. Look for the long-term trend line to be tested now and support levels to hold.
Stochastic mid-term as shown sits in oversold levels as the climb continues. However, BTC has historically seen high volatility in these levels after large moves – especially pivot moves. The continuance of price all depends on the trend holding firm with support.
MACD shows momentum still positive
Today will also mark an important day for the current leg up as calculated by Rogue* Wave Analysis: If BTC can hold at or near 8k on the daily* candle close*, this will be more than 1/2 of the previous leg down which is classified as an official break of the trend down. This can be challenged over the next few days as well, so be aware of this.
BTC is currently a hold with downside protection under support
Futures Traders – Trade the trend. The short-term trend is currently long.

Ethereum Bearish Trend Is Confirmed: “Inclined to say down will be the direction we take…”

Ethereum has been really choppy these past few days in trading but we managed to play the chop pretty well. For inexperienced traders and swing traders, it was a nightmare but day traders had a field day. Now it looks like ETH is trying to break down and away from all the bullishness BTC has.

Diving straight into the H1 chart we notice some things. We are in a clearly defined order block as we can’t seem to break over or below this area. We rest on support but also sit under a lot of resistance. Picking a winner here is guesswork but I am more inclined to say down will be the direction we take.
The reason I say this is because ETH broke below the up-trend line again but in order to confirm this break down we need at least one solid bear candle close under the line or a series of H1 candle closes below.
The H1 STOCH is pretty low so we can expect an attempt at the trendline again. After confirming a break down we can look to short into the next uptrend line I have here; the target is red.
In order to sustain a bullish outlook, we must close over the trend line again and break back over resistance, a close of 470 will open up a 480 target from days before. If we manage to reach 480 we will look to go SHORT.

Trading Crypto: **Monday Afternoon: Bitcoin On The Knife’s Edge, Could Break Big To The Upside

Bitcoin continues higher as the upside trend line of yesterday’s expanding megaphone pattern has been broken. The price point break at roughly 7535 shows the extension of the current leg as it seeks out the ultimate endpoint – the 6700 endpoint.

 

This is by far the most important and pivotal point for the year as this remains the long-term bearish trend line for BTC. This has been active the entire year for BTC (sloped) and has held well. Today, at exactly 7700 (7706 is the hard challenge point previously made) this will be the biggest test for BTC. A close above this line and continuation up with support holding at 7600 then 8k firm will allow BTC the chance to turn the long-term trend bullish.

The current leg up, as mentioned, has made an extended run as the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern created and played out last week found it’s target endpoint. However, considering the bull run and continued upside price action which found yesterday’s call to be ineffective, BTC is now hitting the hard challenge point with long-term resistance. Caution should be effectively placed at this level with fairly tight stops for those in the market.
Support and Resistance stand at 7200/7600/8k.
BTC is currently a hold for those in – no new entries to the market still. Wait for support confirmation once again once the long-term trend line is challenged.
Futures Traders- trade the trend. The short-term trend is currently long; again, watch for possible pivot of the long-term trend line at 7700.

Bitcoin Ran Last Week, But Sluggishness Plagues Current Technicals

Bitcoin has reached a point that is difficult to beat: continued upside after a quick bull run. Resistance on the upside at 7600 has given a hard point at the top, even as BTC continues to hold 7200 resistance firmly. Volatility stays at an average level with a short period of 100 plus point moves but maintains a 7300 to mid 7400 range consistently. After through Rogue* Wave Analysis and technical assessment, there are several things to consider with price movement over the next 24 hours.

Mid Scale shows BTC forming what looks to be an expanding megaphone pattern that seems to hold price within the boundaries fairly well at this point. The upside was tested today at the 7516 price level specifically and shows a hard bounce off of the upper trend line as shown. The downside happens to stay very close to the 7200 support line as well, and considering the giveback that BTC may likely follow suit with, this line is likely to be tested once again. The pattern also comes after a large leg up, so a break below will test the 1/2 retracement of the previous leg up at 6800 level which also happens to be the next firm support level down.
Stochastic readings now in overbought zones(>80) also look to give back by seeking lower levels across the board as the short, medium, and long(daily) term charts show.
MACD continues to stay negative and in fact, just crossed to the downside on the hourly scale.
This is all in conjunction with the likelihood of BTC seeking the MA(moving average) line on the daily scale.
BTC is currently a Sell/No Play until confirmation of support and retracement pivot.

Trading Crypto: **Sunday Morning: Ethereum Follows Alt-Coins Into Bearish Territory

Ethereum has made a huge swing in events and now is looking very, very weak. We have made a .78 retrace of the last bullish move. It has taken us far less time to drop this low than it too ETH to run up to 510. The speed and depth of this drop really makes me question all this bullish sentiment. We have also broken below a major H4 trend line and now we only have one more below to sustain this whole bullish movement. We also have not gotten H1 bull DIV and that alone tells me we can consider another drop before any significant test can be made.

 

 Checking on the bull scenario we could see ETH still sustaining everything needed to be able to consider this drop as an ABC zig-zag. A break lower than a 1:1 ratio will make me throw the bullish scenario away. This is still okay for an ABC zigzag and since we hit a perfect 1:1 ratio of the first minor leg down it still fits the criteria of an ABC zigzag. The bulls have H4 STOCH on their side and i can see a test of 450 again and if we break above and close 2-4 H4 candles we can set targets for D1 order block.
Now for the bears, we will need them to defend 450. With STOCH RSI being so low we can expect the bulls to try and push through H4 pivot of 450. If the bears can successfully keep the price below 450 with the STOCH RSI running high we can expect another hard drop. If price runs with STOCH RSI then we can expect the D1 order block to be tested again(469-480).
For the short term traders look for a possible RISKY short to the white zone, doing this will also break below another important H1 trend and again give the bears more strength. For MED term swing traders look for support to hold in the white zone.
A MED risk long can be taken and a target of 450 should be used to exit all positions, unless price really runs with STOCH. If price runs with STOCH we can hold positions and look for a sold close above 450 and target 480 D1 order block.
After the bounce to our predicted zone, we will look for our signals to short. Such as exhausted STOCH with price failing to gain any traction. Or any bearish divergence on smaller time frames such as H1 or lower. Our initial short target will be 400-404 but will update as we move forward.

Trading Crypto: **Saturday Morning: Downside Protection Is Key As $BTC Trades Sideways, But Don’t Sell Just Yet

Bitcoin now sits above support at 7200 as it trends a bit sideways. Not uncommon, it’s attempt to seek out 7600 resistance once again mid-term (shown on the 4-hour scale) is only plagued by the fact BTC maintained a recent higher high followed by the current short-term lower low. This would technically be a sideways trend, however, BTC holding the 7200 support area allows it to show a higher low* overall as the recent run-up from the 6k major support area shows. This maintains the overall shorter term trend long.

Rogue Waves show that BTC current trend can be continued if the current meeting of price and the MA (moving average: blue line on the current candle) can be broken and held on the upside as well. Thus far after the run-up, two retracement points have been shown for a couple of days now, with the first being a 1/3 retrace at the 7200 support area. The second is at 1/2 retracement which just happens to be the 6800 support area. Support and Resistance have played out perfectly and stand firm at 6800/7200/7600 – trading firmly on 400 point bands or levels.
With the current price floating in the 7300 range, there is skepticism as the long top wick created by the red candle in recent trading was met with a firm test of the 7200 mark. This is also the reason the sideways short-term trend can be dangerous, however, a hold of BTC is of importance unless this support level is broken.
Stochastic readings are bottoming as needed with a potential pivot at or near the oversold level (<20). This is in line with the higher low on the mid-term mentioned holding support.
MACD also remains negative at this time but seeks to cross to the upside as it is ticking positively.
BTC is currently a hold with downside protection under support.

Bitcoin Technicals Now Locked Into A Battle; Go Higher Or Breakdown To Scary Price Points

Bitcoin maintains higher levels of trading as it goes into Thursday morning (US CST*) trading and giveback has been little to none. As the mid-scale shows, BTC now sits around the 7400 area, the push beyond 7200 resistance to hold as support has been successful the first time, however, will look to be tested once again as discussed yesterday.

 

This will allow for two things: the confirmation of higher support levels working and proper continuation of the uptrend after a higher low is registered. Continued higher highs and higher lows needed at this time as BTC is in a crucial pivotal point long-term.

The large-scale flag channel formation has downside potential still at 4800, however, the upside break must happen beyond the 8k area. As the 7600 target is next, BTC must first maintain solid grounding, and this is the main point when considering a re-test of support.
Looking at the tech specs at this time is a challenge as well, considering stochastic levels have hovered in upper regions on the lower time frames.
However, the mid-scale as shown shows an exit from overbought (>80) levels once again
This is one big fact when considering sell on positions to buy back lower, especially considering this is a potential longer-term pivot. This will also bring higher volatility, and therefore downside protection under support should be made firm if no sell is put in place.
MACD shows continued upward momentum but does happen to be ticking negatively to attempt to cross – another reason to protect positions at this time if holding.
BTC is currently a Sell with buyback lower after support test.
Small pennant forms as well mid-scale, therefore upside break entry pre-set at 7560.
Futures Traders- trade their trend. The short-term trend is currently long, however, giveback expected soon so watch the pattern.

Trading Crypto: **Wednesday Evening: Ethereum Price Action Decouples From Bitcoin Pump

Ethereum has fallen hard since the last bullish push to 512. If you were long from previous charts they had very obvious signs to exit upon two bearish divergences across the two major tops in RSI and PRICE and also the smaller trends themselves.

 

The H4 STOCH was bound to crash after a historic 3 days in the upper range, ETH never experienced that before so I’ll be watching closely on what she does next.

Diving into the m30 chart here we try and note some things, after the bearish divergence we will be looking for bull divergence to help us signify a bottom and close any short potions or possibly find an entry for a long position.
After the first drop, ETH nearly made a full 1.618 ext which has in the past (90%) called for one more drop before an ultimate counter-trend. If we manage to get that last little drop to the 1.618 ext it will open up the bottom side for short-term scalpers. I am still inclined to say we are in for another drop but be wary on how BULL BTC may play a role if we manage to close on a High Time Frame in the 7k+ range then we may not drop any further at all.
Formed term swing traders look for support to hold while H4 STOCH resets near 455-460, We could also find support near 468-470 so watch STOCH levels and price action closely. We will long upon confirmation of support being held. Remember to always practice good risk management and use a stop loss.

BULL RUN: Bitcoin Breaks Above 7,400, Technicals Align With Fundamental Factors

Bitcoin breaks out and everyone rejoices, but why? What lies behind the movement…let’s examine the technicals.

 

The last 36 hours of trading have finally seen the upside break BTC has been searching for after finding ground near the 5800 mark, a pivot point that held the long-term downtrend channel lower trend boundary. As seen, this large channel/flag is still active and continues to maintain price in a systematic manner. The upper trend line that is now sought out currently stands at about 8k, but as a movement will have giveback and time value in-between, this is likely to sit at about 7800 for a while as discussed yesterday.

This large-scale pattern is also technically a bullish flag if looked at on a wide scale spanning back the total lifespan of BTC. However, the 7800-8k level must be broken to the upside and 8k held as solid support eventually for this to continue to stand true. At the moment, BTC is holding 7200 as support as it seeks out 7600 resistance with a high achieved at 7561 so far, only 49 points shy of hard resistance. This also completes the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern shown for over a week now with the Rogue* Wave System backing price movement. This leg is now complete.
Looking at the tech specs, BTC shows stochastic levels continuing to hold upper levels on the short, mid, and long-term (daily shown) scales. Daily is the back end performer as it aims for overbought(>80) levels once again but is in a straight path upward so far.
MACD levels are generally positive though ticking down on the smaller scales, showing retracement at bay. However, the pattern continues upward with higher highs and higher lows.
BTC is currently a hold. Downside protection should be placed under support for a break, generally around 7100.
Futures Traders- Trade the Trend. The short-term trend is currently long.