Ethereum Technical Weakness Continues; Short Trade Seems To Be The Only Play

Ethereum has been trending down in the last 24 hours and I called for a short set up near 450 but as we can see, we still have not met that. I assumed we would touch our zone before H1 BULL DIV formed but looks like BULLS needed extra help. The wave 5 target was also not met as we did not reach 414 but all is well if you sat on your hands and did not enter.

 

Now we must find out what does ETH want to tell us today.

 

Diving into the H1 charts we notice some things have given a clearer picture and overall very good set up if my TA is correct. We have finished a 5 wave move own as we had confirmation of trend reversal given H1 BULL that formed overnight.
Now we are looking for a 3 wave move into the opposite direction that will then be accompanied by another 5 or 3 wave move down. So for this set up, I want to go short near the .5 retrace of the previous downward move. In order for our entries to be met ETH must sustain H1 support while letting H1 STOCH pivot.
I have specific targets shown for points where I think we can make an immediate turn, you can see a ladder tech used in the red zone. Targets are also staying the same for the SHORT term. A stop is the same as I think a close of that zone will trigger some people to flip positions.
Remember to always practice good risk management and not every trade is the trade.

Bitcoin Technicals Desperately Search For Support, Next Level Down Could Touch 6,000

Bitcoin has made no progress in its path to seek out 6400 resistance once again to create support. As BTC currently trades in the mid 6300 range, there has been virtually no change with extremely low volatility in the last day. This is highly unusual once again after such a big drop, and as the hourly chart seems to show, there is an attempt to now retrace some of the losses. The focus, however, should be shifted a bit to the longer-term as we are now able to see some crucial points in price action.

Looking at the daily chart(shown), BTC is clear in its overall path and downtrend continuation at the moment. This exact chart was presented over two months ago as BTC retraced to the upside over the long term. Now looking at the same chart with no alterations, it can be seen that BTC maintains exact momentum as it now struggles to break the 6800 line on that longer-term scale.
After BTC challenged this area twice as support with the last time in early April, the downside break of the 6800 line led to it being used as hard resistance. The last time BTC challenged it as resistance was mid-June, then just a few days ago. Both instances showed a hard bounce, and it seems that BTC is now struggling to maintain the 6400 area. This makes things all the more interesting, as 6k has been the total downside target for months now as shown, and if a break occurs below that 6k area, the second target below at 4750 could occur. Additionally, looking at the pattern, the 6800 challenge here recently would likely be seen as a minor double-top hitting resistance.
Stochastic readings daily are also taking a dive to seek lower levels in the oversold region(<20) once again.
MACD shows a slowing in positive momentum, so watch carefully.
BTC needs support desperately, next level down at 6k flat.
BTC is currently a no play.
Futures Traders- Trade the Trend. The short-term trend is down, however price action has been sideways with low volatility for over 24 hours. No trade – until trend continuation or reversal short-term is confirmed(breakout) to lower risk.

BUSTED! Ian Balina Was Never Hacked; Receives Tokens In Ether Wallet He Claims Was Compromised

Sometimes, in crypto twitter, you shake your head and proclaim “you couldn’t make this shit up”. That is exactly the kind of story this is. You couldn’t make this stuff up. Just because of its sheer stupidity.

Ian Balina received Quarkchain and Mainframe tokens into the same ether wallet that he claimed got hacked and then transferred those tokens to his Binance account.

https://etherscan.io/address/0x9f3d63c00830741cb73fab5319cd2b1b8a025457#tokentxns

Like we said, you can’t make this stuff up.

One of crypto twitters well known ‘sharp eyes’ caught it and put out a tweet late last night calling him out. Here is that tweet:

So let’s get something out of the way here – anyone who is serious about crypto knows that Balina is a clown show. But the jury was out on whether or not he was a fraud and scam artist. This stunt proves that without a doubt.

Whatever his reason for executing a scam/hack – be it avoiding taxes, dumping on his followers, or just begging for more attention – he’s proven himself to not only be a clown show but a first-rate fraudster as well. And we haven’t even touched the quick and dirty deposits into his Binance account shortly after these tokens were deposited to the allegedly hacked ether wallet. Shame.

He’s also proven himself to be enormously ‘unintelligent’ when it comes to this particular scam and the hack he alleged. To keep the same ether wallet in circulation is famously stupid. So stupid that it falls under the “you can’t make this stuff up” category.

If you hadn’t already figured it out, Balina’s opinion and ‘expertise’ should be removed from your crypto feed as quickly as possible. Dude has been proven to be a certifiable fraud.

Ethereum Breaks Down; Technicals Trending Even Lower!

Ethereum has broken down like we assumed would happen but what has changed is the overall bullish set up for the month. In order to sustain our bullish call for the month, we NEEDED to sustain the important swing low of 454-460 but we fell out and down with decent volume which leads me to believe we have more downside coming if things don’t change rapidly. Our short targets were hit and surpassed as my target was swing low.

Diving into the H1 chart we notice we don’t see any signs of a reversal from RSI or STOCH. We will get some relief soon but I expect it to be sold off as support is now resistance. Usually, when we see an extension of the first move being 1.6 or greater we can expect another leg down to follow up. These factors all lead me to believe we will be trending lower after some consolidation.
I will look to add to my short position at the bounce and I’ll look to close all at the touch of swing low. Other targets are listed just in case we don’t make it down that far. Remember to always practice good risk management and remember not every trade is the trade.

Bitcoin Trend Sliding Negative Again, Drop Below 6,400 Support Should Give You Pause

Bitcoin has continued to follow the path laid out by retracing beyond the point projected, but this giveback has been due. The question is where will price stop? To get an accurate gauge of a continuance in the uptrend, BTC price movement must show proper pivot in conjunction with support and/or resistance. Looking at the price now, BTC is showing an attempt to hold resistance as support at 6400 once again. This is a major support level and should be watched carefully as the failure to hold this zone as support will lead to BTC seeking the next major support at 6k.

Rogue* Waves now show that the downdraft has taken back almost 1/2 of the previous leg up if looked at on a longer scale. However, keep in mind that the short scale pattern that has been trending up has been broken in being able to day trade BTC or its respective Altcoins that track together as the short-scale pattern has broken down to give way to a mid-long term retracement. BTC is now trading in the upper 6300’s, which is attempting to hold 6400 once again as support. Failure to do so is in the cards as of writing as MACD momentum is still negative with the histogram giving continuous ticks negatively.
What will BTC seek next? If proper support can be made for a pivot as shown, BTC will once again test 6800 and 7200 major resistance beyond that. Stochastic levels show a bottoming attempt but keep in mind that mid-term retracements as shown to bring more volatility in the extreme “danger zones” of stochastic levels, e.g. less than 20. Watch the histogram on MACD for momentum to slow down.
Note: Previous entry and exit strategy thus far have proved to be the optimal trades on BTC while maintaining lower risk. Considering the trend is confirmed down short-term with a lower low, a support pivot is needed before entering the market. The case for higher volatility to the upside allows for a pre-set entry point at 6550 once again, confirming a continuation in the uptrend for a short gain at the least if BTC is to seek 6800 resistance again.
BTC is currently a watch.
Futures Traders- trade the trend. The short-term trend is short, however, watch for potential pivot confirmation.

REBRAND: Ripple And XRP Attempt New Round Of Clarifications Surrounding Security Status (meh)

Call us unimpressed with the latest round of explanations from the Ripple team concerning XRP and its ties to the Ripple brand. Until Ripple executives divest themselves from owning more than +50% of $XRP we find any new round of clarifications nothing but a parlor game. Currently, Ripple execs own better than 65% of $XRP tokens.

To wit, Ripple has gone on an impromptu rebranding campaign to clarify the difference between Ripple, the company, and the digital asset known as $XRP. This comes during a time of mounting regulatory tensions on the status of $XRP as a security.

Ripple recently released an infographic on their Twitter account that detailed the difference between Ripple and the $XRP token. They emphasized the fact that Ripple is a technology company that provides products for sending money on a global scale.

The $XRP token, on the other hand, is an independent digital asset on an open-source technology. The technology in question is known as the XRP Ledger and is the blockchain on which the $XRP token resides. This translates to the Ledger existing independently and not being owned by any single entity, which includes Ripple. (uhhhhhhh…)

Ripple only utilizes the XRP Ledger in one of their products currently, which is called xRapid. The xRapid product aims to provide on-demand liquidity by using the XRP token as a bridge currency for cross-border transactions. The digital asset or the technology is not controlled by Ripple. Even though the company holds 60 billion XRP, 55 billion is locked up in escrow accounts.

Ripple also emphasized that the XRP Ledger is a community-based platform, with the XRP community deciding whether the technology succeeds or fails. Ripple, on the other hand, is set up in the fashion of a traditional company, with a board, founders and employees of Ripple deciding it’s success.

Being an open-source software, anyone can use the XRP Ledger or token and build on it. On the contrary, Ripple sells products to financial institutions which contribute to their user base. Ripple is owned by the founders, investors, and employees who hold stock in Ripple, while anyone can use the XRP token or hold it.

At least that is the story they are selling, again. Still, $XRP is principally owned by Ripple founders and executives and the firm is facing multiple lawsuits claiming securities fraud based on their distribution and sale of $XRP and how the proceeds have been used within Ripple. Until the two are truly independent entities (which will never happen) any further explanation is more bluster from a brand and team that lacks credibility for those that understand how cryptocurrencies are supposed to work.

LISTEN! An Ethereum Trade You Should Have Made Yesterday

Ethereum has been up-trending nicely and we have officially broken out of every downtrend from 800 highs. So this leads me to believe we will continue to have a bullish month until we hit our next big downtrend line near 520-530. We will not guarantee this bullish month but we will always update levels to ensure our prediction stays intact.

 

So diving into the H4 chart we notice we had BEAR divergence as RSI gave a double top while price made an HH. What I’m looking at right now to ensure a bullish month to stay intact is for ETH to sustain a swing low of 455-460 while STOCH gets a full reset under the red. A hold of the black trend line is also important to me and breaking under with volume will have me questioning the strength of swing low support.
What this means for me in the MED term is this, ETH must sustain both swing low and black up-trend to minimize risk in longs. Breaching the trendline will have me watching for the retest to short (low volume pump) the trend line or break back over to long (high volume pump). You can also set a pre-set entry above swing high to have the least amount of risk if wanting to go long.
For short-term scalpers and day traders, we could see the SHORT term view play a little different. To me I notice a 5 wave move downward which is always accompanied by a 3 wave move in the opposite direction. So we can possibly see a short-term SHORT at play when the test of new downward line or fib retracement of .5-.68 near red box. Target will be .78-1 extension of previous move or touch of trend-line again. If Ethereum is able to match previous swing highs price then our short play will go out the window.

Bitcoin Price Action As Tight As It Has Ever Been; Carefully Play Technicals With Strategic Stop Loss Protection

Bitcoin has now begun to retrace as the Rogue* Wave track laid out continues to perform as expected. Overnight (US CST) trading held BTC to a tight range – less than 100 points to be precise while looking at the mid-scale chart. The sell signal given at 6800 resistance was the end target for BTC before attempting to retrace, and so far price has done exactly so. Now trading at about 6685, BTC is only just over 100 points down from the selling point, a sign that it is attempting to hold higher price levels near resistance while still a far cry from 6400 major support. This, however, is not a signal to re-enter quite yet. There are still a couple of factors to consider.

A breakthrough 6800 to hold this area as support would be optimal, but considering there is a retracement occurring, the major item at hand is BTC’s ability to hold support at 6400 and better yet 6450 considering this was the last pivot area for 6550 entry on the previous entry. Best case scenario for BTC would be to hold 6650, which is roughly 1/2 retracement of the previous leg up. This would best be matched with a drop in stochastic levels, but the likelihood of breaking below would be higher in this case as stochastic bottoming would entail a proper longer-term retracement.
Stochastic levels are trading in the 60’s zone and currently aim to go down further. The point to look out for is where price holds short and long-term support. Wait for the drop and cross in stochastic to confirm with support how exactly price will hold. This will be an important tool to watch when the hourly and 4-hour candle during the cross forms. The next level up for BTC to seek is 7200 (beyond 6800)
MACD continues to show downward momentum but also shows a slow down hourly. This is more of an exit tool, therefore it should be used by looking for a cross or some positive ticks.
BTC is currently a no play. Watch for support and pivot confirmation. The downside break of support will continue a no play situation.
Futures Traders – trade the trend. The short-term trend is currently short.

CRYPTIC: Tron Sources Giddy, Yet Careful About Upcoming Partnership Announcement

The conversations we’ve had with two Tron sources about the announcement coming on July 30th have been interesting, hyperbolic, and confusing all at the same time.

The conversations started yesterday evening and spilled over into today regarding the upcoming announcement slated for July 30th. You may remember that Justin Sun has pegged that particular date as an important moment with respect to Tron’s post – Mainnet momentum as a household name in crypto and as a useable ecosystem.

A few quotes with two sources who spoke to us on the condition of anonymity and on background yesterday and today:

“We’ve seen the backlash associated with adding too many adjectives to a partnership or announcement and we want to avoid that here…but this is going to be something that opens a few eyes and may bring some skeptics onto the Tron bandwagon. The announcement itself isn’t just a dog and pony show with one vendor popping out of a cake at the end of it; but rather a combination of sorts that should make clear how quickly things are coalescing around here. I know you’ve asked several times for names but we just can’t give that out right now. If I disclosed a name or names, it would be pretty easy to track back to me, so I just can’t do it. Sorry to be cryptic (laughter), but the conglomerate of what will be announced in three weeks is going to have an impact. That is all I can say.”

A second source took a little bit different angle:

“This isn’t just another partnership announcement of where $TRX is accepted as currency, although that is sure to come up, but rather a larger initiative that could bring several forces and projects together like the finishing of a puzzle. We’ve been somewhat sworn to secrecy so I cannot add too much more, but we expect the July 30 discussion to be ‘bullish’ for $TRX. All you really have to do is look at the last six months of activity and announcements and do a little math as to where this could go. Again, the packaging will be something that gets talked about as impressive. One thing I would mention here, this is not an Alibaba announcement, as has been speculated. At least not from a pure play payment standpoint. Although it could be, emphasis on ‘could be’ here, part of an overall package that is laid out. And that is the gist of what could be part of July 30th. A 360-degree proclamation that announces several items, all set to work together and bring more partners to the table. The final word from me is this – just don’t miss it. It is going to be something.”

We have yet to decode the different messages being sent here. There are huge corporations in China and Asia that could be part of this narrative and potential Tron partners. Are those part of the discussion July 30th? We don’t think that it is just another partnership like that. It feels somewhat bigger than that.

One important element that we do believe will be featured is the purchase of BitTorrent and how it could launch into partnerships based on the scale of it platform. Use cases connected to payments and Mainnet functionality. The upside being potentially endless. We are certain that something along those lines will be discussed on the 30th.

Where it goes from there seems to have Tron insiders tongue tied. They know, they just don’t want to give away the surprise!

Trading Crypto: **Sunday PM: We Told You To Hold For A Move Higher, Did You Listen? (what’s next is inside)

Bitcoin has finally broken out of the trading channel. Still holding with no downside protection hit (stop). Good news for holders this AM as BTC trades at resistance near 6800. Hourly shows clear indication of the uptrend still being intact, as well as the mid-term scale (4-hour).

 

Taking into account that the previous leg up consolidated into a flag-like pattern, the fact that yesterday’s trading held downside to specifically less than 1/2 of the previous leg down, BTC Rogue* Wave Analysis showed the upside break at 6615 – which occurred in a timely manner as well. This leg up, however, is overextended, and as the mid-term chart shows, there is a flat line at current price showing hard resistance at the 6800 mark.

With the overall downtrend still intact long-term, 6800 must act as support once again to seek out higher levels and bring more of a comfort level for long trades as well as lowering risk. There is also that the daily chart shows two important items.
First, this leg up needs to register a higher high by candle close*. This is the previous level that BTC pivoted around June 20th and continued the downtrend for a lower low.
Secondly, this leg up is still slightly less than 1/2 of the previous leg down, which indicates the long-term trend still being down. This can be challenged by the close above 6800 to hold as new support. There will be retracement along the way, but BTC needs only one higher low overall after that support hold to consider changing the overall trend long-term.
Stochastic levels are now in the upper region once again without seeking out oversold levels, which is a sign for proper risk management as those lower levels will be sought out soon.
MACD momentum is positive, yes. However, it is only slightly remaining so.
BTC is currently a Sell to take profit at 6800(or close) with a Net Profit of 250 points or roughly 3.7%