Trading Crypto: **Sunday Morning: Ethereum Follows Alt-Coins Into Bearish Territory

Ethereum has made a huge swing in events and now is looking very, very weak. We have made a .78 retrace of the last bullish move. It has taken us far less time to drop this low than it too ETH to run up to 510. The speed and depth of this drop really makes me question all this bullish sentiment. We have also broken below a major H4 trend line and now we only have one more below to sustain this whole bullish movement. We also have not gotten H1 bull DIV and that alone tells me we can consider another drop before any significant test can be made.

 

 Checking on the bull scenario we could see ETH still sustaining everything needed to be able to consider this drop as an ABC zig-zag. A break lower than a 1:1 ratio will make me throw the bullish scenario away. This is still okay for an ABC zigzag and since we hit a perfect 1:1 ratio of the first minor leg down it still fits the criteria of an ABC zigzag. The bulls have H4 STOCH on their side and i can see a test of 450 again and if we break above and close 2-4 H4 candles we can set targets for D1 order block.
Now for the bears, we will need them to defend 450. With STOCH RSI being so low we can expect the bulls to try and push through H4 pivot of 450. If the bears can successfully keep the price below 450 with the STOCH RSI running high we can expect another hard drop. If price runs with STOCH RSI then we can expect the D1 order block to be tested again(469-480).
For the short term traders look for a possible RISKY short to the white zone, doing this will also break below another important H1 trend and again give the bears more strength. For MED term swing traders look for support to hold in the white zone.
A MED risk long can be taken and a target of 450 should be used to exit all positions, unless price really runs with STOCH. If price runs with STOCH we can hold positions and look for a sold close above 450 and target 480 D1 order block.
After the bounce to our predicted zone, we will look for our signals to short. Such as exhausted STOCH with price failing to gain any traction. Or any bearish divergence on smaller time frames such as H1 or lower. Our initial short target will be 400-404 but will update as we move forward.

Trading Crypto: **Saturday Morning: Downside Protection Is Key As $BTC Trades Sideways, But Don’t Sell Just Yet

Bitcoin now sits above support at 7200 as it trends a bit sideways. Not uncommon, it’s attempt to seek out 7600 resistance once again mid-term (shown on the 4-hour scale) is only plagued by the fact BTC maintained a recent higher high followed by the current short-term lower low. This would technically be a sideways trend, however, BTC holding the 7200 support area allows it to show a higher low* overall as the recent run-up from the 6k major support area shows. This maintains the overall shorter term trend long.

Rogue Waves show that BTC current trend can be continued if the current meeting of price and the MA (moving average: blue line on the current candle) can be broken and held on the upside as well. Thus far after the run-up, two retracement points have been shown for a couple of days now, with the first being a 1/3 retrace at the 7200 support area. The second is at 1/2 retracement which just happens to be the 6800 support area. Support and Resistance have played out perfectly and stand firm at 6800/7200/7600 – trading firmly on 400 point bands or levels.
With the current price floating in the 7300 range, there is skepticism as the long top wick created by the red candle in recent trading was met with a firm test of the 7200 mark. This is also the reason the sideways short-term trend can be dangerous, however, a hold of BTC is of importance unless this support level is broken.
Stochastic readings are bottoming as needed with a potential pivot at or near the oversold level (<20). This is in line with the higher low on the mid-term mentioned holding support.
MACD also remains negative at this time but seeks to cross to the upside as it is ticking positively.
BTC is currently a hold with downside protection under support.

SOURCE: Bitcoin ETF ‘Nearly Certain’ To Win Approval Later This Year

Working back channels at the SEC and the CFTC in particular, we’ve come across two sources that seem to be ‘nearly certain’ that the crypto ETF conversation is about to take a seriously bullish turn.

The background for the optimism is tempered with some specific downside: coming crypto and ICO regulations. Both sources said that the ‘nearly certain’ approval of a Bitcoin ETF and other crypto ETF products will be announced alongside the first set of crypto regulations of substance from both the SEC and the CFTC.

Our most optimistic source, coming from the CFTC, said the following, “I would call it 90% at this point. The crypto markets have moderated and regulators have watched the lack of drama surrounding Bitcoin futures across several global exchanges. The price moderation and adoption of a ‘peer product’ is what the conversations have centered around. In January we were justifiably concerned about a bubble and the harm a quickly approved product could attract speculators and create losses that led to significant lawsuits. Now, those factors seem to be mitigated significantly.”

The second source, a former SEC employee who left the regulator two weeks ago, had this to say, “I would expect a positive outcome in September – or if it gets strung out a little further it is simply a few ‘dotted i’s and crossed t’s’ are being finalized on larger regulatory language in the crypto space. To be clear, most of the regulation will be first focused on ICO’s and the issues those pose for retail investors at the moment. US residents are sending money to all sorts of exotic locations to invest in unregulated instruments with absolutely zero recourse for losing every cent they’ve put at risk. ICO regulation will begin to solve those issues and keep client assets ‘onshore’.

Both sources made further comments all having to do with the runway that Bitcoin and crypto futures (Ethereum) have provided for ETF products taking center stage late this year and into 2019.

The regulatory agencies are fully aware that once this door is cracked open it will create a flood of submissions, approvals, new products in every color, shade, and denomination connected to crypto. Thus, the congruent push for regulation that will provide the architecture for fair and equitable markets to surround the newly regulated asset class.

Still, this is big news as we are essentially being told that an approval is all but guaranteed. If you take a look at price movements connected to industries that joined the ETF movement and the institutional assets that followed, an expected spike in prices isn’t far-fetched.

One reason why billionaires and well-known asset managers have been heard discussing, and investing in, cryptocurrencies via pure means or via crypto hedge funds. Interesting indeed.

Bitcoin Technicals Now Locked Into A Battle; Go Higher Or Breakdown To Scary Price Points

Bitcoin maintains higher levels of trading as it goes into Thursday morning (US CST*) trading and giveback has been little to none. As the mid-scale shows, BTC now sits around the 7400 area, the push beyond 7200 resistance to hold as support has been successful the first time, however, will look to be tested once again as discussed yesterday.

 

This will allow for two things: the confirmation of higher support levels working and proper continuation of the uptrend after a higher low is registered. Continued higher highs and higher lows needed at this time as BTC is in a crucial pivotal point long-term.

The large-scale flag channel formation has downside potential still at 4800, however, the upside break must happen beyond the 8k area. As the 7600 target is next, BTC must first maintain solid grounding, and this is the main point when considering a re-test of support.
Looking at the tech specs at this time is a challenge as well, considering stochastic levels have hovered in upper regions on the lower time frames.
However, the mid-scale as shown shows an exit from overbought (>80) levels once again
This is one big fact when considering sell on positions to buy back lower, especially considering this is a potential longer-term pivot. This will also bring higher volatility, and therefore downside protection under support should be made firm if no sell is put in place.
MACD shows continued upward momentum but does happen to be ticking negatively to attempt to cross – another reason to protect positions at this time if holding.
BTC is currently a Sell with buyback lower after support test.
Small pennant forms as well mid-scale, therefore upside break entry pre-set at 7560.
Futures Traders- trade their trend. The short-term trend is currently long, however, giveback expected soon so watch the pattern.

Trading Crypto: **Wednesday Evening: Ethereum Price Action Decouples From Bitcoin Pump

Ethereum has fallen hard since the last bullish push to 512. If you were long from previous charts they had very obvious signs to exit upon two bearish divergences across the two major tops in RSI and PRICE and also the smaller trends themselves.

 

The H4 STOCH was bound to crash after a historic 3 days in the upper range, ETH never experienced that before so I’ll be watching closely on what she does next.

Diving into the m30 chart here we try and note some things, after the bearish divergence we will be looking for bull divergence to help us signify a bottom and close any short potions or possibly find an entry for a long position.
After the first drop, ETH nearly made a full 1.618 ext which has in the past (90%) called for one more drop before an ultimate counter-trend. If we manage to get that last little drop to the 1.618 ext it will open up the bottom side for short-term scalpers. I am still inclined to say we are in for another drop but be wary on how BULL BTC may play a role if we manage to close on a High Time Frame in the 7k+ range then we may not drop any further at all.
Formed term swing traders look for support to hold while H4 STOCH resets near 455-460, We could also find support near 468-470 so watch STOCH levels and price action closely. We will long upon confirmation of support being held. Remember to always practice good risk management and use a stop loss.

BULL RUN: Bitcoin Breaks Above 7,400, Technicals Align With Fundamental Factors

Bitcoin breaks out and everyone rejoices, but why? What lies behind the movement…let’s examine the technicals.

 

The last 36 hours of trading have finally seen the upside break BTC has been searching for after finding ground near the 5800 mark, a pivot point that held the long-term downtrend channel lower trend boundary. As seen, this large channel/flag is still active and continues to maintain price in a systematic manner. The upper trend line that is now sought out currently stands at about 8k, but as a movement will have giveback and time value in-between, this is likely to sit at about 7800 for a while as discussed yesterday.

This large-scale pattern is also technically a bullish flag if looked at on a wide scale spanning back the total lifespan of BTC. However, the 7800-8k level must be broken to the upside and 8k held as solid support eventually for this to continue to stand true. At the moment, BTC is holding 7200 as support as it seeks out 7600 resistance with a high achieved at 7561 so far, only 49 points shy of hard resistance. This also completes the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern shown for over a week now with the Rogue* Wave System backing price movement. This leg is now complete.
Looking at the tech specs, BTC shows stochastic levels continuing to hold upper levels on the short, mid, and long-term (daily shown) scales. Daily is the back end performer as it aims for overbought(>80) levels once again but is in a straight path upward so far.
MACD levels are generally positive though ticking down on the smaller scales, showing retracement at bay. However, the pattern continues upward with higher highs and higher lows.
BTC is currently a hold. Downside protection should be placed under support for a break, generally around 7100.
Futures Traders- Trade the Trend. The short-term trend is currently long.

HEDGE FUND: Short Ethereum, Buy Bitcoin (but why?)

Crypto hedge funds employ long/short strategies all day, every day. Most of the time they don’t broadcast them to the world or their competition. Yet one hedge fund thought it was a good idea to do just that. Simple enough.

Tetras Capital, a hedge fund focusing on the blockchain, cryptocurrency and digital assets, stated recently that they will be taking a short position on Ethereum [ETH]. They mentioned their reasons for doing so while supporting Bitcoin [BTC] as an investment.

Interestingly, the publication came before the sudden spike seen in the cryptocurrency market, when Bitcoin breached the $7000 mark earlier today. This marks a rally after a continued period of reduced volatility, the longest seen since its all-time high in December 2017.

Even with the price hike seen across the market yesterday, Ethereum’s performance seems lackluster. While most cryptocurrencies in the top 10 are posting gains of upwards of 9%, Ethereum sits tight at just 6% growth in price over the last 24 hours.

The ‘arbitrage’ spread above would seem to make that call successful, but less so if they’ve employed a wholly 1:1 ration long/short. Which we are sure that they haven’t.

Crypto hedge funds use all sorts of strategies that either sink returns or blast them off to the positive. Fork arbitrage, exchange arbitrage, short calls, and long positions. Kneeling and praying for short only or long-only positions like bag holders beholden to their favorite crypto brand isn’t what wins the day in this world.

While a strategy that seems to frown upon, arguably, the second most powerful brand in crypto makes for a good headline – we doubt it is the sole strategy of a well-known crypto hedge fund.

Be careful to make decisions based on headlines fed to the media from hedge funds. They aren’t in the habit of giving away their ‘edge’.

 

PUMP: 5 Reasons Why Bitcoin Is Pumping And Alt-Coins Are Playing Along

Today’s price movement in the crypto markets is turning sentiment from un-bear-ably negative to slightly bullish. Bitcoin pressed beyond resistance levels and has managed a nearly 11% gain on the day (s0 far). And just as everyone suspected, alt-coins followed suit right along with the crypto leader, $BTC.

So what has driven the last week of price action and today’s move in particular? Five specific items stick out and can be matched to both sentiment and technicals as Bitcoin busted out.

 

5. BlackRock leaks info that they’ve established a crypto working group. “And now, as Financial News reports, the world’s largest asset manager will examine whether the manager of $6.3 trillion of assets should invest in Bitcoin futures.  It is also reportedly reviewing what competitors are doing with cryptocurrencies and how it would affect its business.”

“Notably, the formation of the team marks a change for the company after CEO Larry Fink said in October cryptocurrencies are a speculative platform in Asia and heavily used for money laundering. He has also said Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were “far from” being an opportunity for institutional investors, and none of BlackRock’s clients wanted to invest in it, according to Financial News.” Bullish.

4. Bloomberg posts an exclusive as the SEC approves Coinbase’s move into the broker-dealer space, allowing the popular crypto exchange to list coins that may be classified as securities. 

“Coinbase Inc., one of the most popular cryptocurrency platforms, said it got the green light from U.S. watchdogs to move forward with a trio of acquisitions that will allow it to become one of the first federally regulated venues for trading digital coins deemed to be securities.”

“The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority approved Coinbase’s purchase of Keystone Capital Corp., Venovate Marketplace Inc., and Digital Wealth LLC, a company spokesman said Monday. The acquisitions enable the firm to offer so-called security tokens and also place the businesses under federal oversight. Coinbase has primarily been regulated by a patchwork of state authorities.”

From a competitive and strategic standpoint, this gives Coinbase the ability to begin outrunning most of its competitors. The majority of exchanges within and outside of the US have yet to make a push into the broker-dealer space for fear or regulatory scrutiny. This designation puts Coinbase squarely into the rarified air of Gemini and Circle, as more legitimate financial institutions. Both of those firms have also applied for ‘broker-dealer’ designations and licensing.

3. Robinhood announces its intention to list several more coins on its fast-growing, commission-free platform.

And now this – Robinhood has announced even more crypto brands have been added for crypto enthusiasts to trade.

The company said in an announcement on Thursday that Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash have been added for Robinhood Crypto users following strong demand from customers for crypto assets beyond the current options of bitcoin and ethereum.

As part of the announcement, Robinhood also claimed it now has over 5 million users on the platform following the expansion of its crypto trading service to 17 U.S. states.

2. Billionaires continue to plow their personal assets into cryptocurrencies in the midst of a bear market; specifically, Steven Cohen. “The investment was made through his Cohen Private Ventures, said the person, who asked not to be named because the information is private. The hedge fund, Autonomous Partners, was started last year by Arianna Simpson, an early advocate of cryptocurrencies. It has also secured investments from Union Square Ventures, Coinbase Inc. Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong and Craft Ventures Co-Founder David Sacks, Simpson said in an interview Thursday.”

In other words, this isn’t some sort of committee decision executed after quarterly allocations were made within Cohen’s organization. This was Cohen making a personal commitment to the crypto space and attempting to do it at just the right time so as to maximize his personal returns.

1. Facebook, Mt. Gox, and Facebook.

Internal crypto moves from Facebook – “The social media giant named Evan Cheng as its first Director of Engineering, Blockchain, TechCrunch reported. Cheng has been part of Facebook since 2015, according to his personal LinkedIn profile. A closer look at his background reveals his long-term experience in the field of computer engineering. Interestingly enough, before getting to his new position, he served as the Director of Engineering, Programming Languages & Runtimes at the company.”

Mt. Gox Court Filing Stops Massive Bitcoin Dumps – “The issue that has most plagued the crypto markets, via Mt. Gox, has been the massive selling pressure brought about by the now-defunct exchange as it dumped massive amounts of $BTC on the markets to satisfy the terms of its bankruptcy mandates. Per a court filing today it looks like that is about to end, and the final ‘distribution’ process will happen ‘in-kind’ via a process known as Civil Rehabilitation.”

Facebook removes the ban on crypto related ads – “Today’s announcement says the company has been looking into the best way of “refining” its blanket ban on cryptocurrency-related advertising “over the last few months,” in order to “allow some ads while also working to ensure that they’re safe. Facebook’s revised “prohibited products and services policy” now states: “Starting June 26, we’ll […] allow ads that promote cryptocurrency and related content from pre-approved advertisers. But we’ll continue to prohibit ads that promote binary options and initial coin offerings.”

**Two more points of reference have manifested themselves: Bitcoin ETF filings that seem to be assured approval in short order, and the naming of a new Goldman Sachs CEO who just so happens to be keen on Bitcoin and cryptos in general.

Collectively these announcements occurred inside of 20 days. The first three on this list – in the last six. Each of them providing a floor to the crypto bear market and signaling an institutional push that finally broke technical resistance levels that have held for weeks.

If you were looking for reasons to stay long as $BTC (and the alts) begin to move – there you have them.

Ethereum Floats With Bitcoin Move; Beware Bearish Technicals That Still Dominate

ETH made a small push up last night and almost had my position stopped out but I noticed weakness with BEAR divergences on all small time frames and held strong, my stop was set at 486. Now as we fall we will look to close out our shorts in one of the two zones labeled. We will close 100% in the green zone and will look for bullishness near the first one.

Diving into the H4 chart we must note of some things that must be met in order to sustain the BULLISH MOVE up. We must have STOCH pivot while letting price settle in a nice support pocket. I also do not see any BULL on any small time frames, I will be looking for the H1 chart to give me signs of a bottom for the leg coming down. We will then look to go long upon confirmation of support being held. We will target a 1:1 ratio if we fall to the green zone and a 1.2 ratio if we stay above.
We must take note of the obvious HIDDEN BEAR on the D1 chart. IF price stagnates here for too long I can see the hidden bear taken seriously. We must get over the swing high to invalidate the bear set up, even if it’s just by a penny.
Remember to always use stop loss and practice good risk management.

Bitcoin Technicals: And Just Like That Everybody Can Breathe Again

Bitcoin continues to challenge the 6800 resistance area as the last 24 hours worth of trading have kept price levels hovering in this zone. As BTC continues to fight this level, the mid-scale and daily chart continues to show the short-term long pattern that has created the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that has formed. The continuation of the long pattern seeks the ultimate destination at the 7200 mark(which also happens to be the next resistance point beyond 6800). This marks the major pivot area for BTC, and at the least should see a retracement, if not before this level.

As discussed in yesterday’s analysis, support and resistance levels stand firm @ 6400/6800/7200 and 7600. However, a new piece of data has emerged with the Rogue* Wave System. Today sees the upside break target of the long-term trend changed. This means bear territory can be flipped into a possible bull market at the break of 7600 resistance. The question is if BTC has found its bottom, which is still market near the 5k region.
Stochastic levels continue to be in overbought(>80) zones on the mid-scale, with daily giving a pivot in lower levels. This is good for bullish momentum.
MACD shows positive momentum on every scale so far with hourly attempting to close across to the upside with lower price movement. Hence, a slow crossing once again.
BTC is currently a hold for participants, but a watch for those not in the market. Looking for a pullback on the short to mid-scale for support entry.
Futures Traders- trade the trend. The short-term trend is currently long. Be cautious of a pullback to re-test short-term supports