Bitcoin continues with strong upward momentum in US (CST) overnight trading as speculation drives BTC to break the long-term trend line. This line (top dotted line) shows the downward trajectory that BTC has sustained perfectly within its bounds since last year after peaking near 20k. Now looking at a solid test of this line, BTC trades at 8180, holding the 8k solid support area. This will likely be retested as well considering this is about the area that the long-term trendline converges with the price. A hold above this line will solidify BTC’s attempt to turn a long-term bear market into a raging bull. This coincidentally collides with much chatter about BTC ETF’s getting clearance for possible retail use fairly soon.
Ethereum has been really choppy these past few days in trading but we managed to play the chop pretty well. For inexperienced traders and swing traders, it was a nightmare but day traders had a field day. Now it looks like ETH is trying to break down and away from all the bullishness BTC has.
Bitcoin continues higher as the upside trend line of yesterday’s expanding megaphone pattern has been broken. The price point break at roughly 7535 shows the extension of the current leg as it seeks out the ultimate endpoint – the 6700 endpoint.
This is by far the most important and pivotal point for the year as this remains the long-term bearish trend line for BTC. This has been active the entire year for BTC (sloped) and has held well. Today, at exactly 7700 (7706 is the hard challenge point previously made) this will be the biggest test for BTC. A close above this line and continuation up with support holding at 7600 then 8k firm will allow BTC the chance to turn the long-term trend bullish.
In several discussions last week it became clear that there is a disconnect between blockchain perceptions and reality. Those discussions were had with crypto hedge fund folks who stand squarely on the front lines of the crypto world and see it as clear-eyed as they are paid to see it.
One of their biggest concerns is that the US is losing ground very, very quickly to China across the board in crypto innovation, regulatory and governmental involvement, and capital investments. Several voices believed that it wasn’t just a ‘what if’ as to Chinas aggressive moves in the space but rather a ‘how quickly’ conversation.
Specifically, there were several developments that were highlighted. Massive Bitcoin mining farms that are fed by newly built dams and energy sources that are renewable and never-ending. Large percentages of Bitcoin and crypto whales that now hail from China. Sizable trading blocks and exchange traffic coming from China. And maybe most interesting is the huge amounts of capital (billions) that the Chinese government is handing out to innovators in crypto, in China, to carry out that innovation.
Those sorts of developments do not exist in the United States, or anywhere else. In the US the crypto scene gets out of their mind excited when the SEC refuses to call Bitcoin a security; while simultaneously stating that ‘all ICO’s look like securities’ to them. Those are not the conversations that are happening in China. Instead, the government is shovelling money into the space to attempt to dominate its foundation.
Even with all of that evidence, Chinas government continues to give lip service to banning ICO’s and cryptocurrencies in general. But the folks we spoke to in crypto were having none of it.
We spoke to a hedge fund source and he was unanimous in his concern over China’s speed and commitment in crypto.
“Anything their government says about crypto is false and untrue. They are giving lip service to a ban on cryptos so that the average citizen doesn’t discover its power. They are sharing their work in crypto with the elites there and the vendors that serve them. In the space of about a year, they’ve passed the US. It doesn’t mean they ultimately win, but it does mean that the rest of the developed world has some catching up to do.”
No doubt that the nature of crypto maturity having as short a fuse as any tech we’ve ever seen, it isn’t a surprise that a larger player could come in, strike it rich and dominate.
All of this is another reason that these hedge fund voices believe that meaningful regulation of ICO’s and crypto designations are coming from the SEC and other regulatory bodies by the end of 2018.
“We sincerely believe that there is going to be guidance, if not outright regulation from the SEC by the end of this year. We would be very, very surprised if that wasn’t the case.”
As of today, the U.S. is playing catch up. China is leading. And the rest of the world is waiting to see who to follow.
Bitcoin dominance has returned in full force. As alt-coins faltered near the end of last week and over the weekend, Bitcoin not only stabilized but pushed up the ladder of technical support beyond 7,600. Earlier this AM it even pushed beyond 7,700.
That price ‘punch’ (and what bulls hope is the start to a larger bull market) has Bitcoin in a position it hasn’t seen in more than a year – dominating the market cap of cryptocurrencies to the tune of nearly 50%.
Bitcoin has proved to be one of the most stable digital assets amid a massive 70 percent market-wide correction with many altcoins still struggling despite Bitcoin now showing signs of recovery.
Namely, XRP $0.453448 -0.22% and Ethereum $463.869 -0.2% are responsible for most of the altcoin bleeding. Ripple’s market share has dropped from an all-time high of 18.5 percent in January to 6.2 today. Meanwhile, Ethereum currently holds 16.33 percent of the market — or just half of its all-time high mark of 33 percent set in June of last year.
The price destruction associated with Ethereum could be marked as leading the alt-coin markets decoupling from the price of Bitcoin. Some crypto pundits see this as a positive development long term as alts should be forced to stand on their own two feet rather than consistently mirror the price action of $BTC.
Still, Bitcoin remains dominant because it’s the de facto store of value in the cryptocurrency market.
Yes, it is the oldest blockchain with first mover advantage — but it’s also the most battle-tested and most immutable (with the highest hash rate) blockchain with the biggest network effect. Hence, it is no surprise that it inspires the most confidence among cryptocurrency investors.
That point cannot be overstated. As institutional (banks, hedge funds, venture capital, private equity, and family wealth offices) dollars continue to move into digital assets the first move is into Bitcoin. And at bear market prices it is relatively cheap in the eyes of big money.
That alone could explain the decoupling from alts that we’ve seen over the past four days. As alt-coins have sold off, the cash has moved into Bitcoin.
Price dominance may not be the metric it once was, but it still tells a story. 2017 may have been a year when the investing public became aware of dozens of alt-coin names. As 2018 matures it is clear that a pivot back to the one blue-chip crypto is at hand.
Bitcoin has reached a point that is difficult to beat: continued upside after a quick bull run. Resistance on the upside at 7600 has given a hard point at the top, even as BTC continues to hold 7200 resistance firmly. Volatility stays at an average level with a short period of 100 plus point moves but maintains a 7300 to mid 7400 range consistently. After through Rogue* Wave Analysis and technical assessment, there are several things to consider with price movement over the next 24 hours.
We’ve previously covered several pieces of information that were leaked to us concerning Tron’s coming ‘announcement day’ on July 30th. Justin Sun himself has pegged this particular day as a red letter moment for the brand – and we think we’ve got a solid lead on what will be announced that day.
One of the two sources we cited in our previous article on the subject (Tron Sources Giddy ) shared more info on what they expect to be announced; $TRX bagholders should be excited.
Here is what we learned:
- A new partnership will be announced. Our source was clear and focused on this point, but stopped short of telling us who/what the new partnership would be or entail, “A new partnership will be unveiled that will add to the ‘use case’ narrative for us. I can’t tell you who it is going to be or the scale of it, but expect it to be either the headline of the announcement or the surprise at the end. I don’t know how Justin and the team will choose to emphasize it, but it will be the talk of crypto for a few days.”
- BitTorrent will be re-emphasized and it’s relationship to Mainnet further explained. “BitTorrent will play a central role in everything that is coming on the 30th. Specifically, how do initiatives connected to Mainnet get distributed on a larger scale and stay true to a ‘decentralized’ crypto vision? Justin plans to build an enormous ecosystem and BitTorrent is key to that vision.”
- Super Representatives and Tron Foundation Governance. “The Tron Foundation will play a role and the message will focus on professionalizing the governance and network that has continued to spread across the globe. The team wants to spread a message that there are serious adults behind every different initiative that has become what Tron represents. If you think about it, no other cryptocurrency brand is doing what we are doing as fast as we are doing it. And we want the message to be that there is a roadmap and it is being followed.”
This closely followed what we previously reported and this source has become one that we trust with respect to Tron intel. Intel that has followed the $TRX roadmap closely over the past three months.
“We’ve seen the backlash associated with adding too many adjectives to a partnership or announcement and we want to avoid that here…but this is going to be something that opens a few eyes and may bring some skeptics onto the Tron bandwagon. The announcement itself isn’t just a dog and pony show with one vendor popping out of a cake at the end of it; but rather a combination of sorts that should make clear how quickly things are coalescing around here. I know you’ve asked several times for names but we just can’t give that out right now. If I disclosed a name or names, it would be pretty easy to track back to me, so I just can’t do it. Sorry to be cryptic (laughter), but the conglomerate of what will be announced in three weeks is going to have an impact. That is all I can say.”
That previous quote is now merely days away from coming true. Tron fans and stakeholders are anxiously awaiting July 30th. It sounds like they won’t be disappointed.
Ethereum has made a huge swing in events and now is looking very, very weak. We have made a .78 retrace of the last bullish move. It has taken us far less time to drop this low than it too ETH to run up to 510. The speed and depth of this drop really makes me question all this bullish sentiment. We have also broken below a major H4 trend line and now we only have one more below to sustain this whole bullish movement. We also have not gotten H1 bull DIV and that alone tells me we can consider another drop before any significant test can be made.
Bitcoin now sits above support at 7200 as it trends a bit sideways. Not uncommon, it’s attempt to seek out 7600 resistance once again mid-term (shown on the 4-hour scale) is only plagued by the fact BTC maintained a recent higher high followed by the current short-term lower low. This would technically be a sideways trend, however, BTC holding the 7200 support area allows it to show a higher low* overall as the recent run-up from the 6k major support area shows. This maintains the overall shorter term trend long.
Working back channels at the SEC and the CFTC in particular, we’ve come across two sources that seem to be ‘nearly certain’ that the crypto ETF conversation is about to take a seriously bullish turn.
The background for the optimism is tempered with some specific downside: coming crypto and ICO regulations. Both sources said that the ‘nearly certain’ approval of a Bitcoin ETF and other crypto ETF products will be announced alongside the first set of crypto regulations of substance from both the SEC and the CFTC.
Our most optimistic source, coming from the CFTC, said the following, “I would call it 90% at this point. The crypto markets have moderated and regulators have watched the lack of drama surrounding Bitcoin futures across several global exchanges. The price moderation and adoption of a ‘peer product’ is what the conversations have centered around. In January we were justifiably concerned about a bubble and the harm a quickly approved product could attract speculators and create losses that led to significant lawsuits. Now, those factors seem to be mitigated significantly.”
The second source, a former SEC employee who left the regulator two weeks ago, had this to say, “I would expect a positive outcome in September – or if it gets strung out a little further it is simply a few ‘dotted i’s and crossed t’s’ are being finalized on larger regulatory language in the crypto space. To be clear, most of the regulation will be first focused on ICO’s and the issues those pose for retail investors at the moment. US residents are sending money to all sorts of exotic locations to invest in unregulated instruments with absolutely zero recourse for losing every cent they’ve put at risk. ICO regulation will begin to solve those issues and keep client assets ‘onshore’.
Both sources made further comments all having to do with the runway that Bitcoin and crypto futures (Ethereum) have provided for ETF products taking center stage late this year and into 2019.
The regulatory agencies are fully aware that once this door is cracked open it will create a flood of submissions, approvals, new products in every color, shade, and denomination connected to crypto. Thus, the congruent push for regulation that will provide the architecture for fair and equitable markets to surround the newly regulated asset class.
Still, this is big news as we are essentially being told that an approval is all but guaranteed. If you take a look at price movements connected to industries that joined the ETF movement and the institutional assets that followed, an expected spike in prices isn’t far-fetched.
One reason why billionaires and well-known asset managers have been heard discussing, and investing in, cryptocurrencies via pure means or via crypto hedge funds. Interesting indeed.