Trading Crypto: **Sunday Evening: In A Stagnant/Bear Market Traders May Have To Resort To A Tight ‘Scalping’ Strategy

Bitcoin followed the Rogue path once again with a retracement or continuance in the uptrend as it certifies its recent hold on 6k support. As BTC now seeks the 6400 resistance mark, there are a few things to consider. BTC hasn’t quite given the best scenario for a pivot so far – and going into a new week, there isn’t the base that was quite expected. What exactly does this mean? Frankly, a 6k support that was more firm or at the least another 6400 resistance test by now would have been a better situation. The market, however, rarely ever conforms perfectly. So that leaves BTC with the next best option for reaching new heights: hoping that the recent pivot hold will continue even with the overall downtrend still intact and more than 1/2 of the previous leg up being taken back. Statistically, this will be a difficult feat.

Rogue* Analysis has shown a high risk entry at 6200 to be solid so far with over 150 points on the table, but this is a short-term high risk gain. This should not be in the allocation for those with little understanding of market movement nor the proper risk tolerance.
Thus far, this leg does qualify as a higher low on the daily scale, and short-mid scale needs followthrough with higher highs and higher lows to confirm the trend long. Long-term breakout from bear market trajectory remains at roughly 8k – quite a distance away. Therefore, BTC short-term gains are the only strategically relevant entries. Keep in mind the risk at this time is also High* considering the trend, recent lows, and the fact that pivot plays are the likely entries to maximize profits which are small in comparison to historical data so far.
BTC is currently a No Play until pattern confirms long entry risk reduction.

Crypto ‘Salt and Shade’ Is Everywhere Right Now; Nobody Is Exempt

The crypto bear market continues to take its toll on the dialogue and mindset of even those at the top. The sniping, shade, salt, and ‘subtweets’ of some of the most well-known leaders and brands in crypto are at all time levels. Seven months of sliding prices has just about everyone exhausted.

Just this past week several brands and crypto ambassadors felt the need to trash rivals or other projects just because the vibe within crypto will allow it. We’ve put together some of the ‘salt and shade’ that has occurred over the past couple weeks to show you exactly what we are seeing and feeling out there.

Reubin Yap, COO of ZCoin, took several shots at Monero based on his perception of their privacy claims: “The first kind of “cryptographic matter” was Monero which, in Reubin’s opinion, was “horrible to use”. Additionally, he says that Monero did not have a GIO [General Purpose Input/Output] for years and “they were proud of it”. The COO went so far as to say that every other coin takes a privacy protocol, clones it, tweaks it a little, and calls it as its own.”

Coinbase announced the evaluation and possible listing of several new cryptocurrencies in a release and subsequent tweet, and then all of crypto decided to mock them. Specifically, Krakken (a Coinbase competitor) posted a subtweet that was as salty as the Dead Sea:

And what about Ethereum’s Co-Founder, Vitalik Buterin, and his comments about ‘centralized exchanges’ just six days ago? Essentially taking shots at all of the exchanges that happen to matter at the moment. That wasn’t just salt or shade, he actually believes that they should all burn in hell! Tell us what you really think Vitalik!

There are ongoing feuds that rage constantly between cryptocurrencies like Verge and Tron. With Justing Sun even weighing in when they announced their partnership with Pornhub, yet didn’t have to cough up millions for it. Shade.

And we haven’t even touched the Bitcoin/Bitcoin Cash heat. Or the concept of Bitcoin Maximalism and the debate that is moving its way through crypto circles, with thought leaders all taking sides.

And all of it leads back to the severe decline in the market cap of cryptocurrencies. None of this mattered when the collective crypto value hovered beyond $600 billion. And watch it all go away when the ‘pamp’ resumes.

Trading Crypto: **Saturday: Opportunities Available For Short-Term Bitcoin Bulls

Bitcoin overnight (US CST) has continued to hold the 6k major support area as it seeks to create a higher low for the bulls. The only area of concern as far as Rogue* Wave pattern shows is that price has already taken back more than 1/2 of the previous leg up – giving way for a greater possibility of the overall downtrend to continue longer-term. Still, with a tight range and ultra-low volatility once again, BTC continues to give a reason for bulls to make short-term longs; there is opportunity currently at bay.

A long for larger players would consist of entry @ 6200 with a watch on the upside target for 6400. This is the next optimal trade available, though categorized as Risk: High.
The total picture still consists of the downtrend intact with lower highs and lower lows as seen in the mid and long-term charts. Additionally, the hourly and 4-hour scale have begun to show signs of creating a bearish-pennant pattern that looks to have a downside break at around 6175.
For the weekend, taking a look at the tech specs shows stochastic levels attempting to seek higher levels with a bit of struggle. This will allow high-risk short gains, but not likely to much of a trade beyond 250 points as the stats show longs against the trend at this time.
MACD levels are positive with a recent cross to the upside as shown here on the 4-hour scale, a good sign for BTC at the moment as well. Safe plays for upside breakout on a pennant reversal with MACD considering should be watched around the 6400 area(resistance)
BTC is currently a No Play – watch for support to either be sought out over the next 24 hours with pennant break down.

SQUARE: Bitcoin Functionality Fueling Cash App Dominance Versus Rivals Venmo, PayPal

Just over a year ago traditional market pundits were calling for Jack Dorsey’s head. Analysts and financial media pundits had decided that he was unfit to lead two companies at the same time (Twitter and Square) and either needed to choose one or the other – or bow out of both. Twitter and Square had struggled to make meaningful progress as the market pushed forward.

But then Bitcoin and the crypto community stepped in.

Square’s Cash app, which added cryptocurrency functionality in January, has defied Bitcoin price trends ever since, growing its user base despite the overall Bitcoin market activity decreasing. Square’s crypto rollout saw major fanfare at the time, with users broadly welcoming the upgrade as something to celebrate.

Downloads of Square Cash year-on-year were up over 150 percent in June, Dolev notes, also focusing on the comparatively lackluster results of Square obtaining regulator permission to serve New York residents.

The year over year growth in both Square’s Cash App and Twitter (both have seen their stock prices nearly double) has effected a complete turnaround for Dorsey and his perceived abilities as a ‘dual-CEO’. Now, pundits applaud his abilities to scale and push each platform forward. And Dorsey often gives crypto a knowing nod when discussing the renewed fortunes of both companies.

Crypto Twitter is a real thing and has been a large part of the uptick in user growth for the social media platform. Dorsey has discussed the crypto dynamic on each of Twitter’s last three quarterly conference calls.

Bitcoin functionality has made the Square Cash App a favorite of crypto enthusiasts, even if the Cash App costs more to use than it’s counterparts, Venmo and PayPal. In fact, Venmo and PayPal user growth have stagnated over the last year as the Cash App has thrived.

The crypto dynamic isn’t just an interesting talking point anymore for both firms (Dorsey has endorsed Bitcoin as the future of money and a possible ‘one world currency’), but rather fast-growing profit segments as users both discuss the ups and downs of crypto and use it for daily purchases within the Cash App.

Dorsey deserves enormous kudos for using forward-thinking connected to crypto functionality within the Square ecosystem (again, Venmo and PayPal have yet to do so) and embracing the crypto Twitter phenomenon even as some have called for intervention in that space.

And the results are clear – Dorsey is a superstar.

Bitcoin Holds Support At 6,000, But Technicals Look And Feel Sluggish

Bitcoin has continued to trend down with the slowdown of the fallout apparent in the last twenty-four hours or so. As BTC broke bounds by snapping the 6400 support area, it also managed to maintain the longer-term major support area at 6k flat. This was also shown yesterday on the same daily scale as there was previously a pivot at around 6300. However, this hasn’t quite been the case on the daily close* level. The previous candle close on this scale was 6249, a mere 51 points away from the 6300 level. As close as this was, this shows a sign of BTC attempting to hold that pivot zone and thus far it maintains a close distance with current price trading at about 6259 – matched with ultra-low volatility for the day.

Rogue* Wave Analysis shows that the continuation of the downtrend is still in effect on the daily scale, however, the mid-scale 4-hour chart shows an attempt at this time for BTC to retrace at least some of the losses. This indicates an attempt to hold the major 6k support level as well. This is also coupled with the fact that price is set to meet the MA(moving average) line on the mid-scale. With the trend still down, there needs to be a high followed by a higher low* in order to bring down risk and factor in a possible entry.
Stochastic levels daily show a bottoming attempt as oversold(<20) levels are sought out. Matched with a 6k support hold, this would optimally be a solid daily pivot level.
MACD momentum is still negative with a cross in sight and brings continued awareness that BTC still seeks additional lows. Look for a pivot with the higher low to confirm any entrance to the market.
BTC is currently a No Play.
Futures Traders- trade the trend. The short-term trend is currently short with low volatility. Use the 5-15 minute candle scales to base decisions.

Verge Rumors Swirl Regarding Timing Of XVG Debit Cards And New Partners

After Litecoin and TokenPay made their announcements earlier the Verge community began to speculate about the timing of their own debit card initiative. The Verge team even passively made mention of the incoming payment platform and seemed to bless its imminence.

 

The Verge team has never, ever been shy about potential partnerships. (**wink, wink**) So this particular post makes it clear that an announcement of an announcement could be in the offing. In fact, one could call the above tweet a pre-announcement of an announcement of sorts.

We did a little bit of digging with a couple of Verge sources and this much we can tell you. We don’t have a date, we don’t have confirmation of specific partners (other than the obvious TokenPay tie-in), and we don’t have secondary confirmation of the info that we did get from those sources.

But this is what we got: both sources believe that the Verge debit card will be rolled out before the end of September. That could mean tomorrow, late August, or all the way up to the last day in September. But both were adamant that by the end of September there would be a branded Verge debit card available to the masses and $XVG bag holders.

Both sources also classified the tweet today as a “strategic and cryptic tease for what is to come”, and know who approved the messaging within it.

As far as new partnership announcements to coincide with the debit card launch – we got silence in return. Take that however you want…either they don’t want to tell us, or nothing is planned.

TokenPay, as a Verge partner, will play a central role with any debit card product and handle all of the transaction volumes as well. They are a trusted vendor (the only?) in this space and continue to rack up partnerships of their own. The Verge team trusts them implicitly.

Bottom line – the Verge tweet is simply a harbinger of what insiders speculate is a September announcement of their own debit card; which will function much like the Litecoin product.

Ethereum Remains A Technical Mystery; ‘Chop’ Makes For Difficult Setup

Ethereum experienced a lot of chop these past two days in trading and our call yesterday to short the bounce has not yielded the desired results/targets. We are still very much in chop territory so entering into any position before a break of upside or downside can be seen as extremely risky. The question now is was that all downside ETH had to give.

Before we dive into the H1 chart I want to make note of the H4 STOCH pivoting right in the center of the graph which could spell trouble for both sides if on the wrong side. So now lets dive into the H1 chart and make note of certain things. First thing I see is we have lost a crucial support but we still hold the swing low.
H1 STOCH is bottomed out but we know that does not mean much as we can run sideways for some time. In order to ensure the bear case, we must let STOCH ride up but let price stay below STOP. If we get that I am one to say we need one more push down to break this low and find better support at 420. So with this set up we will look to SHORT the bounce (risky because it will be within the chop) and look to close at around 420.
The bullish case is that we may have formed a sort of a double bottom bull divergence if you will accept that as a double bottom. I am one to say it is not but it is something to be extremely aware of if going short. If it does turn out to be a BULL div then look for a 3 wave pattern into the opposite direction and look to short near the top.

STOPPED OUT! Bitcoin Bounces Below 6,400 Resistance Level, Seeks Fresh Lows

Bitcoin struggles once again as the fallout continues with today’s trading stopping out many. With BTC now trading at about 6185, there is no denying that the 6400 mark is not going to hold as support any time soon. The struggle of BTC to maintain that levels came and went, and now BTC’s primary objective is to hold 6k flat as support. This will also be quite difficult as BTC’s downward projected path has been laid out by Rogue* Calculation not only for weeks now but months ago. The 5800 target level was solidified as a long-term trend target. The long-term bottom trend line additionally stands at about 5500 is price continues beyond the 5800 mark.

Realistically, there is also the possibility (as shown in the daily chart) that BTC could maintain price for a pivot. This would mean BTC holding 6300, which is the price point the last major pivot occurred within the oval trend. This would create an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern of sorts. However, the possibility of this rests on today’s close being above this level. This brings the probability to low levels. What is next for BTC is far more important in terms of support.
Support and Resistance Levels stand at 6k/5600/5200/4800. This is why yesterday’s analysis spoke about the long-term possibility of 4750, a shy away from 4800. This calculation would also see the long-term trend continuing in a quick fashion.
Stochastic readings continue to falter as they seek oversold(<20) levels daily.
MACD shows negative momentum with a cross at bay.
BTC is currently a No Play – Needs support to slow sell-off.
Futures Traders-trade the trend. The short-term trend is short.

ROBINHOOD: “We’ve added Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash to our crypto trading platform…”

Robinhood keeps expanding at a pace that even its biggest fans haven’t predicted. Not only has its valuation continued to skyrocket (currently stands at $5.6B), but their ‘cost free’ crypto trading platform is bringing in millions of new users, even as the bear market in cryptos rages.

And now this – Robinhood has announced even more crypto brands have been added for crypto enthusiasts to trade.

The company said in an announcement on Thursday that Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash have been added for Robinhood Crypto users following strong demand from customers for crypto assets beyond the current options of bitcoin and ethereum.

As part of the announcement, Robinhood also claimed it now has over 5 million users on the platform following the expansion of its crypto trading service to 17 U.S. states.

The company’s co-founder and co-CEO Baiju Bhatt previously said he expects Robinhood Crypto to be able to cover the entire U.S. by the end of 2018 as part of a plan to become one of the largest cryptocurrency platforms.

It all adds up to one of the biggest retail threats to Coinbase as the dominant crypto brand in the United States. Coinbase’s issues with customer complaints have been well documented here, and Robinhood continues to push into the space and steal market share.

We’ve heard rumors that Coinbase is pushing into the institutional space (GDAX/Coinbase Pro) because they are getting their teeth kicked in on the retail side of their business. In other words, Robinhood is crushing them and their margins.

Expect that to continue and for Robinhood to keep pressing the envelope in this space. We also expect them to further develop their lending platform and margin business. Frankly, the crypto space is tailormade for those two business lines.

Oh, and it doesn’t hurt that Robinhood is currently a media darling. While Coinbase manufactures public relations hits, Robinhood’s organic coverage is lapped up by the financial media. Will be very interesting to see where these two firms stand a year from now.

Ethereum Technical Weakness Continues; Short Trade Seems To Be The Only Play

Ethereum has been trending down in the last 24 hours and I called for a short set up near 450 but as we can see, we still have not met that. I assumed we would touch our zone before H1 BULL DIV formed but looks like BULLS needed extra help. The wave 5 target was also not met as we did not reach 414 but all is well if you sat on your hands and did not enter.

 

Now we must find out what does ETH want to tell us today.

 

Diving into the H1 charts we notice some things have given a clearer picture and overall very good set up if my TA is correct. We have finished a 5 wave move own as we had confirmation of trend reversal given H1 BULL that formed overnight.
Now we are looking for a 3 wave move into the opposite direction that will then be accompanied by another 5 or 3 wave move down. So for this set up, I want to go short near the .5 retrace of the previous downward move. In order for our entries to be met ETH must sustain H1 support while letting H1 STOCH pivot.
I have specific targets shown for points where I think we can make an immediate turn, you can see a ladder tech used in the red zone. Targets are also staying the same for the SHORT term. A stop is the same as I think a close of that zone will trigger some people to flip positions.
Remember to always practice good risk management and not every trade is the trade.