If Bitcoin Tests And Holds 8k Support, Expect Even More Upside (when moon sir?)

Bitcoin continues with strong upward momentum in US (CST) overnight trading as speculation drives BTC to break the long-term trend line. This line (top dotted line) shows the downward trajectory that BTC has sustained perfectly within its bounds since last year after peaking near 20k. Now looking at a solid test of this line, BTC trades at 8180, holding the 8k solid support area. This will likely be retested as well considering this is about the area that the long-term trendline converges with the price. A hold above this line will solidify BTC’s attempt to turn a long-term bear market into a raging bull. This coincidentally collides with much chatter about BTC ETF’s getting clearance for possible retail use fairly soon.

As resistance to the upside was clearly broken at the 8k mark, the attempt by BTC to hold higher prices will also be challenged by today’s Rogue* Wave Analysis. This shows the 8400 level giving hard resistance as well as the next resistance point up, and even more pressure at 8600 as this was a major pivot area for BTC. Additionally, the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that BTC made the turnaround with at the bottom sees the pattern complete at the current level. Look for the long-term trend line to be tested now and support levels to hold.
Stochastic mid-term as shown sits in oversold levels as the climb continues. However, BTC has historically seen high volatility in these levels after large moves – especially pivot moves. The continuance of price all depends on the trend holding firm with support.
MACD shows momentum still positive
Today will also mark an important day for the current leg up as calculated by Rogue* Wave Analysis: If BTC can hold at or near 8k on the daily* candle close*, this will be more than 1/2 of the previous leg down which is classified as an official break of the trend down. This can be challenged over the next few days as well, so be aware of this.
BTC is currently a hold with downside protection under support
Futures Traders – Trade the trend. The short-term trend is currently long.

Ethereum Bearish Trend Is Confirmed: “Inclined to say down will be the direction we take…”

Ethereum has been really choppy these past few days in trading but we managed to play the chop pretty well. For inexperienced traders and swing traders, it was a nightmare but day traders had a field day. Now it looks like ETH is trying to break down and away from all the bullishness BTC has.

Diving straight into the H1 chart we notice some things. We are in a clearly defined order block as we can’t seem to break over or below this area. We rest on support but also sit under a lot of resistance. Picking a winner here is guesswork but I am more inclined to say down will be the direction we take.
The reason I say this is because ETH broke below the up-trend line again but in order to confirm this break down we need at least one solid bear candle close under the line or a series of H1 candle closes below.
The H1 STOCH is pretty low so we can expect an attempt at the trendline again. After confirming a break down we can look to short into the next uptrend line I have here; the target is red.
In order to sustain a bullish outlook, we must close over the trend line again and break back over resistance, a close of 470 will open up a 480 target from days before. If we manage to reach 480 we will look to go SHORT.

Trading Crypto: **Monday Afternoon: Bitcoin On The Knife’s Edge, Could Break Big To The Upside

Bitcoin continues higher as the upside trend line of yesterday’s expanding megaphone pattern has been broken. The price point break at roughly 7535 shows the extension of the current leg as it seeks out the ultimate endpoint – the 6700 endpoint.

 

This is by far the most important and pivotal point for the year as this remains the long-term bearish trend line for BTC. This has been active the entire year for BTC (sloped) and has held well. Today, at exactly 7700 (7706 is the hard challenge point previously made) this will be the biggest test for BTC. A close above this line and continuation up with support holding at 7600 then 8k firm will allow BTC the chance to turn the long-term trend bullish.

The current leg up, as mentioned, has made an extended run as the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern created and played out last week found it’s target endpoint. However, considering the bull run and continued upside price action which found yesterday’s call to be ineffective, BTC is now hitting the hard challenge point with long-term resistance. Caution should be effectively placed at this level with fairly tight stops for those in the market.
Support and Resistance stand at 7200/7600/8k.
BTC is currently a hold for those in – no new entries to the market still. Wait for support confirmation once again once the long-term trend line is challenged.
Futures Traders- trade the trend. The short-term trend is currently long; again, watch for possible pivot of the long-term trend line at 7700.

Crypto Hedge Funds Believe China Could Be Ground Zero For Crypto Innovation

In several discussions last week it became clear that there is a disconnect between blockchain perceptions and reality. Those discussions were had with crypto hedge fund folks who stand squarely on the front lines of the crypto world and see it as clear-eyed as they are paid to see it.

One of their biggest concerns is that the US is losing ground very, very quickly to China across the board in crypto innovation, regulatory and governmental involvement, and capital investments. Several voices believed that it wasn’t just a ‘what if’ as to Chinas aggressive moves in the space but rather a ‘how quickly’ conversation.

Specifically, there were several developments that were highlighted. Massive Bitcoin mining farms that are fed by newly built dams and energy sources that are renewable and never-ending. Large percentages of Bitcoin and crypto whales that now hail from China. Sizable trading blocks and exchange traffic coming from China. And maybe most interesting is the huge amounts of capital (billions) that the Chinese government is handing out to innovators in crypto, in China, to carry out that innovation.

Those sorts of developments do not exist in the United States, or anywhere else. In the US the crypto scene gets out of their mind excited when the SEC refuses to call Bitcoin a security; while simultaneously stating that ‘all ICO’s look like securities’ to them. Those are not the conversations that are happening in China. Instead, the government is shovelling money into the space to attempt to dominate its foundation.

Even with all of that evidence, Chinas government continues to give lip service to banning ICO’s and cryptocurrencies in general. But the folks we spoke to in crypto were having none of it.

We spoke to a hedge fund source and he was unanimous in his concern over China’s speed and commitment in crypto.

“Anything their government says about crypto is false and untrue. They are giving lip service to a ban on cryptos so that the average citizen doesn’t discover its power. They are sharing their work in crypto with the elites there and the vendors that serve them. In the space of about a year, they’ve passed the US. It doesn’t mean they ultimately win, but it does mean that the rest of the developed world has some catching up to do.”

No doubt that the nature of crypto maturity having as short a fuse as any tech we’ve ever seen, it isn’t a surprise that a larger player could come in, strike it rich and dominate.

All of this is another reason that these hedge fund voices believe that meaningful regulation of ICO’s and crypto designations are coming from the SEC and other regulatory bodies by the end of 2018.

“We sincerely believe that there is going to be guidance, if not outright regulation from the SEC by the end of this year. We would be very, very surprised if that wasn’t the case.”

As of today, the U.S. is playing catch up. China is leading. And the rest of the world is waiting to see who to follow.

Bitcoin Dominance Rockets To 45%; Reaches 2018 Highs

Bitcoin dominance has returned in full force. As alt-coins faltered near the end of last week and over the weekend, Bitcoin not only stabilized but pushed up the ladder of technical support beyond 7,600. Earlier this AM it even pushed beyond 7,700.

That price ‘punch’ (and what bulls hope is the start to a larger bull market) has Bitcoin in a position it hasn’t seen in more than a year – dominating the market cap of cryptocurrencies to the tune of nearly 50%.

Bitcoin has proved to be one of the most stable digital assets amid a massive 70 percent market-wide correction with many altcoins still struggling despite Bitcoin now showing signs of recovery.

Namely, XRP $0.453448 -0.22% and Ethereum $463.869 -0.2% are responsible for most of the altcoin bleeding. Ripple’s market share has dropped from an all-time high of 18.5 percent in January to 6.2 today. Meanwhile, Ethereum currently holds 16.33 percent of the market — or just half of its all-time high mark of 33 percent set in June of last year.

The price destruction associated with Ethereum could be marked as leading the alt-coin markets decoupling from the price of Bitcoin. Some crypto pundits see this as a positive development long term as alts should be forced to stand on their own two feet rather than consistently mirror the price action of $BTC.

Still, Bitcoin remains dominant because it’s the de facto store of value in the cryptocurrency market.

Yes, it is the oldest blockchain with first mover advantage — but it’s also the most battle-tested and most immutable (with the highest hash rate) blockchain with the biggest network effect. Hence, it is no surprise that it inspires the most confidence among cryptocurrency investors.

That point cannot be overstated. As institutional (banks, hedge funds, venture capital, private equity, and family wealth offices) dollars continue to move into digital assets the first move is into Bitcoin. And at bear market prices it is relatively cheap in the eyes of big money.

That alone could explain the decoupling from alts that we’ve seen over the past four days. As alt-coins have sold off, the cash has moved into Bitcoin.

Price dominance may not be the metric it once was, but it still tells a story. 2017 may have been a year when the investing public became aware of dozens of alt-coin names. As 2018 matures it is clear that a pivot back to the one blue-chip crypto is at hand.

Bitcoin Ran Last Week, But Sluggishness Plagues Current Technicals

Bitcoin has reached a point that is difficult to beat: continued upside after a quick bull run. Resistance on the upside at 7600 has given a hard point at the top, even as BTC continues to hold 7200 resistance firmly. Volatility stays at an average level with a short period of 100 plus point moves but maintains a 7300 to mid 7400 range consistently. After through Rogue* Wave Analysis and technical assessment, there are several things to consider with price movement over the next 24 hours.

Mid Scale shows BTC forming what looks to be an expanding megaphone pattern that seems to hold price within the boundaries fairly well at this point. The upside was tested today at the 7516 price level specifically and shows a hard bounce off of the upper trend line as shown. The downside happens to stay very close to the 7200 support line as well, and considering the giveback that BTC may likely follow suit with, this line is likely to be tested once again. The pattern also comes after a large leg up, so a break below will test the 1/2 retracement of the previous leg up at 6800 level which also happens to be the next firm support level down.
Stochastic readings now in overbought zones(>80) also look to give back by seeking lower levels across the board as the short, medium, and long(daily) term charts show.
MACD continues to stay negative and in fact, just crossed to the downside on the hourly scale.
This is all in conjunction with the likelihood of BTC seeking the MA(moving average) line on the daily scale.
BTC is currently a Sell/No Play until confirmation of support and retracement pivot.

EXCLUSIVE: Tron Set To Make Three Announcements On ‘Big Day’ July 30th

We’ve previously covered several pieces of information that were leaked to us concerning Tron’s coming ‘announcement day’ on July 30th. Justin Sun himself has pegged this particular day as a red letter moment for the brand – and we think we’ve got a solid lead on what will be announced that day.

One of the two sources we cited in our previous article on the subject (Tron Sources Giddy ) shared more info on what they expect to be announced; $TRX bagholders should be excited.

Here is what we learned:

  1. A new partnership will be announced. Our source was clear and focused on this point, but stopped short of telling us who/what the new partnership would be or entail, “A new partnership will be unveiled that will add to the ‘use case’ narrative for us. I can’t tell you who it is going to be or the scale of it, but expect it to be either the headline of the announcement or the surprise at the end. I don’t know how Justin and the team will choose to emphasize it, but it will be the talk of crypto for a few days.”
  2. BitTorrent will be re-emphasized and it’s relationship to Mainnet further explained. “BitTorrent will play a central role in everything that is coming on the 30th. Specifically, how do initiatives connected to Mainnet get distributed on a larger scale and stay true to a ‘decentralized’ crypto vision? Justin plans to build an enormous ecosystem and BitTorrent is key to that vision.”
  3. Super Representatives and Tron Foundation Governance. “The Tron Foundation will play a role and the message will focus on professionalizing the governance and network that has continued to spread across the globe. The team wants to spread a message that there are serious adults behind every different initiative that has become what Tron represents. If you think about it, no other cryptocurrency brand is doing what we are doing as fast as we are doing it. And we want the message to be that there is a roadmap and it is being followed.”

This closely followed what we previously reported and this source has become one that we trust with respect to Tron intel. Intel that has followed the $TRX roadmap closely over the past three months.

“We’ve seen the backlash associated with adding too many adjectives to a partnership or announcement and we want to avoid that here…but this is going to be something that opens a few eyes and may bring some skeptics onto the Tron bandwagon. The announcement itself isn’t just a dog and pony show with one vendor popping out of a cake at the end of it; but rather a combination of sorts that should make clear how quickly things are coalescing around here. I know you’ve asked several times for names but we just can’t give that out right now. If I disclosed a name or names, it would be pretty easy to track back to me, so I just can’t do it. Sorry to be cryptic (laughter), but the conglomerate of what will be announced in three weeks is going to have an impact. That is all I can say.”

That previous quote is now merely days away from coming true. Tron fans and stakeholders are anxiously awaiting July 30th. It sounds like they won’t be disappointed.

Trading Crypto: **Sunday Morning: Ethereum Follows Alt-Coins Into Bearish Territory

Ethereum has made a huge swing in events and now is looking very, very weak. We have made a .78 retrace of the last bullish move. It has taken us far less time to drop this low than it too ETH to run up to 510. The speed and depth of this drop really makes me question all this bullish sentiment. We have also broken below a major H4 trend line and now we only have one more below to sustain this whole bullish movement. We also have not gotten H1 bull DIV and that alone tells me we can consider another drop before any significant test can be made.

 

 Checking on the bull scenario we could see ETH still sustaining everything needed to be able to consider this drop as an ABC zig-zag. A break lower than a 1:1 ratio will make me throw the bullish scenario away. This is still okay for an ABC zigzag and since we hit a perfect 1:1 ratio of the first minor leg down it still fits the criteria of an ABC zigzag. The bulls have H4 STOCH on their side and i can see a test of 450 again and if we break above and close 2-4 H4 candles we can set targets for D1 order block.
Now for the bears, we will need them to defend 450. With STOCH RSI being so low we can expect the bulls to try and push through H4 pivot of 450. If the bears can successfully keep the price below 450 with the STOCH RSI running high we can expect another hard drop. If price runs with STOCH RSI then we can expect the D1 order block to be tested again(469-480).
For the short term traders look for a possible RISKY short to the white zone, doing this will also break below another important H1 trend and again give the bears more strength. For MED term swing traders look for support to hold in the white zone.
A MED risk long can be taken and a target of 450 should be used to exit all positions, unless price really runs with STOCH. If price runs with STOCH we can hold positions and look for a sold close above 450 and target 480 D1 order block.
After the bounce to our predicted zone, we will look for our signals to short. Such as exhausted STOCH with price failing to gain any traction. Or any bearish divergence on smaller time frames such as H1 or lower. Our initial short target will be 400-404 but will update as we move forward.

Trading Crypto: **Saturday Morning: Downside Protection Is Key As $BTC Trades Sideways, But Don’t Sell Just Yet

Bitcoin now sits above support at 7200 as it trends a bit sideways. Not uncommon, it’s attempt to seek out 7600 resistance once again mid-term (shown on the 4-hour scale) is only plagued by the fact BTC maintained a recent higher high followed by the current short-term lower low. This would technically be a sideways trend, however, BTC holding the 7200 support area allows it to show a higher low* overall as the recent run-up from the 6k major support area shows. This maintains the overall shorter term trend long.

Rogue Waves show that BTC current trend can be continued if the current meeting of price and the MA (moving average: blue line on the current candle) can be broken and held on the upside as well. Thus far after the run-up, two retracement points have been shown for a couple of days now, with the first being a 1/3 retrace at the 7200 support area. The second is at 1/2 retracement which just happens to be the 6800 support area. Support and Resistance have played out perfectly and stand firm at 6800/7200/7600 – trading firmly on 400 point bands or levels.
With the current price floating in the 7300 range, there is skepticism as the long top wick created by the red candle in recent trading was met with a firm test of the 7200 mark. This is also the reason the sideways short-term trend can be dangerous, however, a hold of BTC is of importance unless this support level is broken.
Stochastic readings are bottoming as needed with a potential pivot at or near the oversold level (<20). This is in line with the higher low on the mid-term mentioned holding support.
MACD also remains negative at this time but seeks to cross to the upside as it is ticking positively.
BTC is currently a hold with downside protection under support.

SOURCE: Bitcoin ETF ‘Nearly Certain’ To Win Approval Later This Year

Working back channels at the SEC and the CFTC in particular, we’ve come across two sources that seem to be ‘nearly certain’ that the crypto ETF conversation is about to take a seriously bullish turn.

The background for the optimism is tempered with some specific downside: coming crypto and ICO regulations. Both sources said that the ‘nearly certain’ approval of a Bitcoin ETF and other crypto ETF products will be announced alongside the first set of crypto regulations of substance from both the SEC and the CFTC.

Our most optimistic source, coming from the CFTC, said the following, “I would call it 90% at this point. The crypto markets have moderated and regulators have watched the lack of drama surrounding Bitcoin futures across several global exchanges. The price moderation and adoption of a ‘peer product’ is what the conversations have centered around. In January we were justifiably concerned about a bubble and the harm a quickly approved product could attract speculators and create losses that led to significant lawsuits. Now, those factors seem to be mitigated significantly.”

The second source, a former SEC employee who left the regulator two weeks ago, had this to say, “I would expect a positive outcome in September – or if it gets strung out a little further it is simply a few ‘dotted i’s and crossed t’s’ are being finalized on larger regulatory language in the crypto space. To be clear, most of the regulation will be first focused on ICO’s and the issues those pose for retail investors at the moment. US residents are sending money to all sorts of exotic locations to invest in unregulated instruments with absolutely zero recourse for losing every cent they’ve put at risk. ICO regulation will begin to solve those issues and keep client assets ‘onshore’.

Both sources made further comments all having to do with the runway that Bitcoin and crypto futures (Ethereum) have provided for ETF products taking center stage late this year and into 2019.

The regulatory agencies are fully aware that once this door is cracked open it will create a flood of submissions, approvals, new products in every color, shade, and denomination connected to crypto. Thus, the congruent push for regulation that will provide the architecture for fair and equitable markets to surround the newly regulated asset class.

Still, this is big news as we are essentially being told that an approval is all but guaranteed. If you take a look at price movements connected to industries that joined the ETF movement and the institutional assets that followed, an expected spike in prices isn’t far-fetched.

One reason why billionaires and well-known asset managers have been heard discussing, and investing in, cryptocurrencies via pure means or via crypto hedge funds. Interesting indeed.