Bitcoin struggles once again as the fallout continues with today’s trading stopping out many. With BTC now trading at about 6185, there is no denying that the 6400 mark is not going to hold as support any time soon. The struggle of BTC to maintain that levels came and went, and now BTC’s primary objective is to hold 6k flat as support. This will also be quite difficult as BTC’s downward projected path has been laid out by Rogue* Calculation not only for weeks now but months ago. The 5800 target level was solidified as a long-term trend target. The long-term bottom trend line additionally stands at about 5500 is price continues beyond the 5800 mark.
Ethereum has been trending down in the last 24 hours and I called for a short set up near 450 but as we can see, we still have not met that. I assumed we would touch our zone before H1 BULL DIV formed but looks like BULLS needed extra help. The wave 5 target was also not met as we did not reach 414 but all is well if you sat on your hands and did not enter.
Now we must find out what does ETH want to tell us today.
Bitcoin has made no progress in its path to seek out 6400 resistance once again to create support. As BTC currently trades in the mid 6300 range, there has been virtually no change with extremely low volatility in the last day. This is highly unusual once again after such a big drop, and as the hourly chart seems to show, there is an attempt to now retrace some of the losses. The focus, however, should be shifted a bit to the longer-term as we are now able to see some crucial points in price action.
Ethereum has broken down like we assumed would happen but what has changed is the overall bullish set up for the month. In order to sustain our bullish call for the month, we NEEDED to sustain the important swing low of 454-460 but we fell out and down with decent volume which leads me to believe we have more downside coming if things don’t change rapidly. Our short targets were hit and surpassed as my target was swing low.
Bitcoin has continued to follow the path laid out by retracing beyond the point projected, but this giveback has been due. The question is where will price stop? To get an accurate gauge of a continuance in the uptrend, BTC price movement must show proper pivot in conjunction with support and/or resistance. Looking at the price now, BTC is showing an attempt to hold resistance as support at 6400 once again. This is a major support level and should be watched carefully as the failure to hold this zone as support will lead to BTC seeking the next major support at 6k.
Ethereum has been up-trending nicely and we have officially broken out of every downtrend from 800 highs. So this leads me to believe we will continue to have a bullish month until we hit our next big downtrend line near 520-530. We will not guarantee this bullish month but we will always update levels to ensure our prediction stays intact.
Bitcoin has now begun to retrace as the Rogue* Wave track laid out continues to perform as expected. Overnight (US CST) trading held BTC to a tight range – less than 100 points to be precise while looking at the mid-scale chart. The sell signal given at 6800 resistance was the end target for BTC before attempting to retrace, and so far price has done exactly so. Now trading at about 6685, BTC is only just over 100 points down from the selling point, a sign that it is attempting to hold higher price levels near resistance while still a far cry from 6400 major support. This, however, is not a signal to re-enter quite yet. There are still a couple of factors to consider.
Bitcoin has finally broken out of the trading channel. Still holding with no downside protection hit (stop). Good news for holders this AM as BTC trades at resistance near 6800. Hourly shows clear indication of the uptrend still being intact, as well as the mid-term scale (4-hour).
Taking into account that the previous leg up consolidated into a flag-like pattern, the fact that yesterday’s trading held downside to specifically less than 1/2 of the previous leg down, BTC Rogue* Wave Analysis showed the upside break at 6615 – which occurred in a timely manner as well. This leg up, however, is overextended, and as the mid-term chart shows, there is a flat line at current price showing hard resistance at the 6800 mark.
Bitcoin overnight (US CST) has traded at a level-off point as it has struggled to break through the 6600 mark, which has revealed itself as a price point that has acted somewhat as a support/resistance area. However, actual support and resistance currently stand at 6400 and 6800. There has been a range of about 250 points, from 6450 to 6700 that BTC has traded within over the past week or so, and this has shown the consistent tests of support as brief touches of the 6400 mark and a solid pullback showing an effective Rogue* Wave pattern were completed. Notice the 5-wave form of BTC as well, as the price has also struggled to break higher. This technically should be continued with the retracement (if the trend continues up) and should re-test support once again.
Bitcoin overnight (US CST) managed to re-test the 6400 support level once again – a sign that the struggle to go up inside of this short-term uptrend has presented itself. This is the second major test of this support level. Now as price trends sideways, BTC has begun to build something of a “sideways” trend channel. There are two things to keep in mind at this point. First, the Rogue* Wave target at 6800 has also been tested once already. Secondly, looking at the hourly scale(shown), BTC still trends up – even if slightly – with higher highs and higher lows technically. Neither a major support nor a price low or pivot from the privies legs in recent price action has yet to be broken. However, downside protection should still be placed underneath support.