Ethereum Remains A Technical Mystery; ‘Chop’ Makes For Difficult Setup

Ethereum experienced a lot of chop these past two days in trading and our call yesterday to short the bounce has not yielded the desired results/targets. We are still very much in chop territory so entering into any position before a break of upside or downside can be seen as extremely risky. The question now is was that all downside ETH had to give.

Before we dive into the H1 chart I want to make note of the H4 STOCH pivoting right in the center of the graph which could spell trouble for both sides if on the wrong side. So now lets dive into the H1 chart and make note of certain things. First thing I see is we have lost a crucial support but we still hold the swing low.
H1 STOCH is bottomed out but we know that does not mean much as we can run sideways for some time. In order to ensure the bear case, we must let STOCH ride up but let price stay below STOP. If we get that I am one to say we need one more push down to break this low and find better support at 420. So with this set up we will look to SHORT the bounce (risky because it will be within the chop) and look to close at around 420.
The bullish case is that we may have formed a sort of a double bottom bull divergence if you will accept that as a double bottom. I am one to say it is not but it is something to be extremely aware of if going short. If it does turn out to be a BULL div then look for a 3 wave pattern into the opposite direction and look to short near the top.

STOPPED OUT! Bitcoin Bounces Below 6,400 Resistance Level, Seeks Fresh Lows

Bitcoin struggles once again as the fallout continues with today’s trading stopping out many. With BTC now trading at about 6185, there is no denying that the 6400 mark is not going to hold as support any time soon. The struggle of BTC to maintain that levels came and went, and now BTC’s primary objective is to hold 6k flat as support. This will also be quite difficult as BTC’s downward projected path has been laid out by Rogue* Calculation not only for weeks now but months ago. The 5800 target level was solidified as a long-term trend target. The long-term bottom trend line additionally stands at about 5500 is price continues beyond the 5800 mark.

Realistically, there is also the possibility (as shown in the daily chart) that BTC could maintain price for a pivot. This would mean BTC holding 6300, which is the price point the last major pivot occurred within the oval trend. This would create an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern of sorts. However, the possibility of this rests on today’s close being above this level. This brings the probability to low levels. What is next for BTC is far more important in terms of support.
Support and Resistance Levels stand at 6k/5600/5200/4800. This is why yesterday’s analysis spoke about the long-term possibility of 4750, a shy away from 4800. This calculation would also see the long-term trend continuing in a quick fashion.
Stochastic readings continue to falter as they seek oversold(<20) levels daily.
MACD shows negative momentum with a cross at bay.
BTC is currently a No Play – Needs support to slow sell-off.
Futures Traders-trade the trend. The short-term trend is short.

Ethereum Technical Weakness Continues; Short Trade Seems To Be The Only Play

Ethereum has been trending down in the last 24 hours and I called for a short set up near 450 but as we can see, we still have not met that. I assumed we would touch our zone before H1 BULL DIV formed but looks like BULLS needed extra help. The wave 5 target was also not met as we did not reach 414 but all is well if you sat on your hands and did not enter.

 

Now we must find out what does ETH want to tell us today.

 

Diving into the H1 charts we notice some things have given a clearer picture and overall very good set up if my TA is correct. We have finished a 5 wave move own as we had confirmation of trend reversal given H1 BULL that formed overnight.
Now we are looking for a 3 wave move into the opposite direction that will then be accompanied by another 5 or 3 wave move down. So for this set up, I want to go short near the .5 retrace of the previous downward move. In order for our entries to be met ETH must sustain H1 support while letting H1 STOCH pivot.
I have specific targets shown for points where I think we can make an immediate turn, you can see a ladder tech used in the red zone. Targets are also staying the same for the SHORT term. A stop is the same as I think a close of that zone will trigger some people to flip positions.
Remember to always practice good risk management and not every trade is the trade.

Bitcoin Technicals Desperately Search For Support, Next Level Down Could Touch 6,000

Bitcoin has made no progress in its path to seek out 6400 resistance once again to create support. As BTC currently trades in the mid 6300 range, there has been virtually no change with extremely low volatility in the last day. This is highly unusual once again after such a big drop, and as the hourly chart seems to show, there is an attempt to now retrace some of the losses. The focus, however, should be shifted a bit to the longer-term as we are now able to see some crucial points in price action.

Looking at the daily chart(shown), BTC is clear in its overall path and downtrend continuation at the moment. This exact chart was presented over two months ago as BTC retraced to the upside over the long term. Now looking at the same chart with no alterations, it can be seen that BTC maintains exact momentum as it now struggles to break the 6800 line on that longer-term scale.
After BTC challenged this area twice as support with the last time in early April, the downside break of the 6800 line led to it being used as hard resistance. The last time BTC challenged it as resistance was mid-June, then just a few days ago. Both instances showed a hard bounce, and it seems that BTC is now struggling to maintain the 6400 area. This makes things all the more interesting, as 6k has been the total downside target for months now as shown, and if a break occurs below that 6k area, the second target below at 4750 could occur. Additionally, looking at the pattern, the 6800 challenge here recently would likely be seen as a minor double-top hitting resistance.
Stochastic readings daily are also taking a dive to seek lower levels in the oversold region(<20) once again.
MACD shows a slowing in positive momentum, so watch carefully.
BTC needs support desperately, next level down at 6k flat.
BTC is currently a no play.
Futures Traders- Trade the Trend. The short-term trend is down, however price action has been sideways with low volatility for over 24 hours. No trade – until trend continuation or reversal short-term is confirmed(breakout) to lower risk.

Ethereum Breaks Down; Technicals Trending Even Lower!

Ethereum has broken down like we assumed would happen but what has changed is the overall bullish set up for the month. In order to sustain our bullish call for the month, we NEEDED to sustain the important swing low of 454-460 but we fell out and down with decent volume which leads me to believe we have more downside coming if things don’t change rapidly. Our short targets were hit and surpassed as my target was swing low.

Diving into the H1 chart we notice we don’t see any signs of a reversal from RSI or STOCH. We will get some relief soon but I expect it to be sold off as support is now resistance. Usually, when we see an extension of the first move being 1.6 or greater we can expect another leg down to follow up. These factors all lead me to believe we will be trending lower after some consolidation.
I will look to add to my short position at the bounce and I’ll look to close all at the touch of swing low. Other targets are listed just in case we don’t make it down that far. Remember to always practice good risk management and remember not every trade is the trade.

Bitcoin Trend Sliding Negative Again, Drop Below 6,400 Support Should Give You Pause

Bitcoin has continued to follow the path laid out by retracing beyond the point projected, but this giveback has been due. The question is where will price stop? To get an accurate gauge of a continuance in the uptrend, BTC price movement must show proper pivot in conjunction with support and/or resistance. Looking at the price now, BTC is showing an attempt to hold resistance as support at 6400 once again. This is a major support level and should be watched carefully as the failure to hold this zone as support will lead to BTC seeking the next major support at 6k.

Rogue* Waves now show that the downdraft has taken back almost 1/2 of the previous leg up if looked at on a longer scale. However, keep in mind that the short scale pattern that has been trending up has been broken in being able to day trade BTC or its respective Altcoins that track together as the short-scale pattern has broken down to give way to a mid-long term retracement. BTC is now trading in the upper 6300’s, which is attempting to hold 6400 once again as support. Failure to do so is in the cards as of writing as MACD momentum is still negative with the histogram giving continuous ticks negatively.
What will BTC seek next? If proper support can be made for a pivot as shown, BTC will once again test 6800 and 7200 major resistance beyond that. Stochastic levels show a bottoming attempt but keep in mind that mid-term retracements as shown to bring more volatility in the extreme “danger zones” of stochastic levels, e.g. less than 20. Watch the histogram on MACD for momentum to slow down.
Note: Previous entry and exit strategy thus far have proved to be the optimal trades on BTC while maintaining lower risk. Considering the trend is confirmed down short-term with a lower low, a support pivot is needed before entering the market. The case for higher volatility to the upside allows for a pre-set entry point at 6550 once again, confirming a continuation in the uptrend for a short gain at the least if BTC is to seek 6800 resistance again.
BTC is currently a watch.
Futures Traders- trade the trend. The short-term trend is short, however, watch for potential pivot confirmation.

LISTEN! An Ethereum Trade You Should Have Made Yesterday

Ethereum has been up-trending nicely and we have officially broken out of every downtrend from 800 highs. So this leads me to believe we will continue to have a bullish month until we hit our next big downtrend line near 520-530. We will not guarantee this bullish month but we will always update levels to ensure our prediction stays intact.

 

So diving into the H4 chart we notice we had BEAR divergence as RSI gave a double top while price made an HH. What I’m looking at right now to ensure a bullish month to stay intact is for ETH to sustain a swing low of 455-460 while STOCH gets a full reset under the red. A hold of the black trend line is also important to me and breaking under with volume will have me questioning the strength of swing low support.
What this means for me in the MED term is this, ETH must sustain both swing low and black up-trend to minimize risk in longs. Breaching the trendline will have me watching for the retest to short (low volume pump) the trend line or break back over to long (high volume pump). You can also set a pre-set entry above swing high to have the least amount of risk if wanting to go long.
For short-term scalpers and day traders, we could see the SHORT term view play a little different. To me I notice a 5 wave move downward which is always accompanied by a 3 wave move in the opposite direction. So we can possibly see a short-term SHORT at play when the test of new downward line or fib retracement of .5-.68 near red box. Target will be .78-1 extension of previous move or touch of trend-line again. If Ethereum is able to match previous swing highs price then our short play will go out the window.

Bitcoin Price Action As Tight As It Has Ever Been; Carefully Play Technicals With Strategic Stop Loss Protection

Bitcoin has now begun to retrace as the Rogue* Wave track laid out continues to perform as expected. Overnight (US CST) trading held BTC to a tight range – less than 100 points to be precise while looking at the mid-scale chart. The sell signal given at 6800 resistance was the end target for BTC before attempting to retrace, and so far price has done exactly so. Now trading at about 6685, BTC is only just over 100 points down from the selling point, a sign that it is attempting to hold higher price levels near resistance while still a far cry from 6400 major support. This, however, is not a signal to re-enter quite yet. There are still a couple of factors to consider.

A breakthrough 6800 to hold this area as support would be optimal, but considering there is a retracement occurring, the major item at hand is BTC’s ability to hold support at 6400 and better yet 6450 considering this was the last pivot area for 6550 entry on the previous entry. Best case scenario for BTC would be to hold 6650, which is roughly 1/2 retracement of the previous leg up. This would best be matched with a drop in stochastic levels, but the likelihood of breaking below would be higher in this case as stochastic bottoming would entail a proper longer-term retracement.
Stochastic levels are trading in the 60’s zone and currently aim to go down further. The point to look out for is where price holds short and long-term support. Wait for the drop and cross in stochastic to confirm with support how exactly price will hold. This will be an important tool to watch when the hourly and 4-hour candle during the cross forms. The next level up for BTC to seek is 7200 (beyond 6800)
MACD continues to show downward momentum but also shows a slow down hourly. This is more of an exit tool, therefore it should be used by looking for a cross or some positive ticks.
BTC is currently a no play. Watch for support and pivot confirmation. The downside break of support will continue a no play situation.
Futures Traders – trade the trend. The short-term trend is currently short.

Trading Crypto: **Sunday PM: We Told You To Hold For A Move Higher, Did You Listen? (what’s next is inside)

Bitcoin has finally broken out of the trading channel. Still holding with no downside protection hit (stop). Good news for holders this AM as BTC trades at resistance near 6800. Hourly shows clear indication of the uptrend still being intact, as well as the mid-term scale (4-hour).

 

Taking into account that the previous leg up consolidated into a flag-like pattern, the fact that yesterday’s trading held downside to specifically less than 1/2 of the previous leg down, BTC Rogue* Wave Analysis showed the upside break at 6615 – which occurred in a timely manner as well. This leg up, however, is overextended, and as the mid-term chart shows, there is a flat line at current price showing hard resistance at the 6800 mark.

With the overall downtrend still intact long-term, 6800 must act as support once again to seek out higher levels and bring more of a comfort level for long trades as well as lowering risk. There is also that the daily chart shows two important items.
First, this leg up needs to register a higher high by candle close*. This is the previous level that BTC pivoted around June 20th and continued the downtrend for a lower low.
Secondly, this leg up is still slightly less than 1/2 of the previous leg down, which indicates the long-term trend still being down. This can be challenged by the close above 6800 to hold as new support. There will be retracement along the way, but BTC needs only one higher low overall after that support hold to consider changing the overall trend long-term.
Stochastic levels are now in the upper region once again without seeking out oversold levels, which is a sign for proper risk management as those lower levels will be sought out soon.
MACD momentum is positive, yes. However, it is only slightly remaining so.
BTC is currently a Sell to take profit at 6800(or close) with a Net Profit of 250 points or roughly 3.7%

Trading Crypto: **Saturday AM: Bitcoin Could Break Either Way At This Point, Act Accordingly

Bitcoin overnight (US CST) has traded at a level-off point as it has struggled to break through the 6600 mark, which has revealed itself as a price point that has acted somewhat as a support/resistance area. However, actual support and resistance currently stand at 6400 and 6800. There has been a range of about 250 points, from 6450 to 6700 that BTC has traded within over the past week or so, and this has shown the consistent tests of support as brief touches of the 6400 mark and a solid pullback showing an effective Rogue* Wave pattern were completed. Notice the 5-wave form of BTC as well, as the price has also struggled to break higher. This technically should be continued with the retracement (if the trend continues up) and should re-test support once again.

 

 

The current long pattern throughout the week with higher highs and higher lows has also been solid – that is until today. Rogue* Wave calculation along with the tech specs show that today will bring a lower low to finally give a break out of tight trading range. This will come at the break of 6550.
One thing to notice going into weekend trading is that there is the chance of a mid-term bullish pennant being played out from the last weeks trading. The upside break to this pattern stands at 6660, and therefore entries and stops can be placed accordingly.
As stochastic hourly seeks lower levels at the moment, the possibilities are open for either break.
MACD momentum is slightly negative but gives no clear indication as it may turn neutral easily at this point and should more so be used for an exit strategy instead.
BTC is currently a hold with downside protection still under support.