Trading Crypto: **Saturday: Opportunities Available For Short-Term Bitcoin Bulls

Bitcoin overnight (US CST) has continued to hold the 6k major support area as it seeks to create a higher low for the bulls. The only area of concern as far as Rogue* Wave pattern shows is that price has already taken back more than 1/2 of the previous leg up – giving way for a greater possibility of the overall downtrend to continue longer-term. Still, with a tight range and ultra-low volatility once again, BTC continues to give a reason for bulls to make short-term longs; there is opportunity currently at bay.

A long for larger players would consist of entry @ 6200 with a watch on the upside target for 6400. This is the next optimal trade available, though categorized as Risk: High.
The total picture still consists of the downtrend intact with lower highs and lower lows as seen in the mid and long-term charts. Additionally, the hourly and 4-hour scale have begun to show signs of creating a bearish-pennant pattern that looks to have a downside break at around 6175.
For the weekend, taking a look at the tech specs shows stochastic levels attempting to seek higher levels with a bit of struggle. This will allow high-risk short gains, but not likely to much of a trade beyond 250 points as the stats show longs against the trend at this time.
MACD levels are positive with a recent cross to the upside as shown here on the 4-hour scale, a good sign for BTC at the moment as well. Safe plays for upside breakout on a pennant reversal with MACD considering should be watched around the 6400 area(resistance)
BTC is currently a No Play – watch for support to either be sought out over the next 24 hours with pennant break down.

Bitcoin Holds Support At 6,000, But Technicals Look And Feel Sluggish

Bitcoin has continued to trend down with the slowdown of the fallout apparent in the last twenty-four hours or so. As BTC broke bounds by snapping the 6400 support area, it also managed to maintain the longer-term major support area at 6k flat. This was also shown yesterday on the same daily scale as there was previously a pivot at around 6300. However, this hasn’t quite been the case on the daily close* level. The previous candle close on this scale was 6249, a mere 51 points away from the 6300 level. As close as this was, this shows a sign of BTC attempting to hold that pivot zone and thus far it maintains a close distance with current price trading at about 6259 – matched with ultra-low volatility for the day.

Rogue* Wave Analysis shows that the continuation of the downtrend is still in effect on the daily scale, however, the mid-scale 4-hour chart shows an attempt at this time for BTC to retrace at least some of the losses. This indicates an attempt to hold the major 6k support level as well. This is also coupled with the fact that price is set to meet the MA(moving average) line on the mid-scale. With the trend still down, there needs to be a high followed by a higher low* in order to bring down risk and factor in a possible entry.
Stochastic levels daily show a bottoming attempt as oversold(<20) levels are sought out. Matched with a 6k support hold, this would optimally be a solid daily pivot level.
MACD momentum is still negative with a cross in sight and brings continued awareness that BTC still seeks additional lows. Look for a pivot with the higher low to confirm any entrance to the market.
BTC is currently a No Play.
Futures Traders- trade the trend. The short-term trend is currently short with low volatility. Use the 5-15 minute candle scales to base decisions.

Ethereum Remains A Technical Mystery; ‘Chop’ Makes For Difficult Setup

Ethereum experienced a lot of chop these past two days in trading and our call yesterday to short the bounce has not yielded the desired results/targets. We are still very much in chop territory so entering into any position before a break of upside or downside can be seen as extremely risky. The question now is was that all downside ETH had to give.

Before we dive into the H1 chart I want to make note of the H4 STOCH pivoting right in the center of the graph which could spell trouble for both sides if on the wrong side. So now lets dive into the H1 chart and make note of certain things. First thing I see is we have lost a crucial support but we still hold the swing low.
H1 STOCH is bottomed out but we know that does not mean much as we can run sideways for some time. In order to ensure the bear case, we must let STOCH ride up but let price stay below STOP. If we get that I am one to say we need one more push down to break this low and find better support at 420. So with this set up we will look to SHORT the bounce (risky because it will be within the chop) and look to close at around 420.
The bullish case is that we may have formed a sort of a double bottom bull divergence if you will accept that as a double bottom. I am one to say it is not but it is something to be extremely aware of if going short. If it does turn out to be a BULL div then look for a 3 wave pattern into the opposite direction and look to short near the top.

STOPPED OUT! Bitcoin Bounces Below 6,400 Resistance Level, Seeks Fresh Lows

Bitcoin struggles once again as the fallout continues with today’s trading stopping out many. With BTC now trading at about 6185, there is no denying that the 6400 mark is not going to hold as support any time soon. The struggle of BTC to maintain that levels came and went, and now BTC’s primary objective is to hold 6k flat as support. This will also be quite difficult as BTC’s downward projected path has been laid out by Rogue* Calculation not only for weeks now but months ago. The 5800 target level was solidified as a long-term trend target. The long-term bottom trend line additionally stands at about 5500 is price continues beyond the 5800 mark.

Realistically, there is also the possibility (as shown in the daily chart) that BTC could maintain price for a pivot. This would mean BTC holding 6300, which is the price point the last major pivot occurred within the oval trend. This would create an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern of sorts. However, the possibility of this rests on today’s close being above this level. This brings the probability to low levels. What is next for BTC is far more important in terms of support.
Support and Resistance Levels stand at 6k/5600/5200/4800. This is why yesterday’s analysis spoke about the long-term possibility of 4750, a shy away from 4800. This calculation would also see the long-term trend continuing in a quick fashion.
Stochastic readings continue to falter as they seek oversold(<20) levels daily.
MACD shows negative momentum with a cross at bay.
BTC is currently a No Play – Needs support to slow sell-off.
Futures Traders-trade the trend. The short-term trend is short.

Ethereum Technical Weakness Continues; Short Trade Seems To Be The Only Play

Ethereum has been trending down in the last 24 hours and I called for a short set up near 450 but as we can see, we still have not met that. I assumed we would touch our zone before H1 BULL DIV formed but looks like BULLS needed extra help. The wave 5 target was also not met as we did not reach 414 but all is well if you sat on your hands and did not enter.

 

Now we must find out what does ETH want to tell us today.

 

Diving into the H1 charts we notice some things have given a clearer picture and overall very good set up if my TA is correct. We have finished a 5 wave move own as we had confirmation of trend reversal given H1 BULL that formed overnight.
Now we are looking for a 3 wave move into the opposite direction that will then be accompanied by another 5 or 3 wave move down. So for this set up, I want to go short near the .5 retrace of the previous downward move. In order for our entries to be met ETH must sustain H1 support while letting H1 STOCH pivot.
I have specific targets shown for points where I think we can make an immediate turn, you can see a ladder tech used in the red zone. Targets are also staying the same for the SHORT term. A stop is the same as I think a close of that zone will trigger some people to flip positions.
Remember to always practice good risk management and not every trade is the trade.

Bitcoin Technicals Desperately Search For Support, Next Level Down Could Touch 6,000

Bitcoin has made no progress in its path to seek out 6400 resistance once again to create support. As BTC currently trades in the mid 6300 range, there has been virtually no change with extremely low volatility in the last day. This is highly unusual once again after such a big drop, and as the hourly chart seems to show, there is an attempt to now retrace some of the losses. The focus, however, should be shifted a bit to the longer-term as we are now able to see some crucial points in price action.

Looking at the daily chart(shown), BTC is clear in its overall path and downtrend continuation at the moment. This exact chart was presented over two months ago as BTC retraced to the upside over the long term. Now looking at the same chart with no alterations, it can be seen that BTC maintains exact momentum as it now struggles to break the 6800 line on that longer-term scale.
After BTC challenged this area twice as support with the last time in early April, the downside break of the 6800 line led to it being used as hard resistance. The last time BTC challenged it as resistance was mid-June, then just a few days ago. Both instances showed a hard bounce, and it seems that BTC is now struggling to maintain the 6400 area. This makes things all the more interesting, as 6k has been the total downside target for months now as shown, and if a break occurs below that 6k area, the second target below at 4750 could occur. Additionally, looking at the pattern, the 6800 challenge here recently would likely be seen as a minor double-top hitting resistance.
Stochastic readings daily are also taking a dive to seek lower levels in the oversold region(<20) once again.
MACD shows a slowing in positive momentum, so watch carefully.
BTC needs support desperately, next level down at 6k flat.
BTC is currently a no play.
Futures Traders- Trade the Trend. The short-term trend is down, however price action has been sideways with low volatility for over 24 hours. No trade – until trend continuation or reversal short-term is confirmed(breakout) to lower risk.

Ethereum Breaks Down; Technicals Trending Even Lower!

Ethereum has broken down like we assumed would happen but what has changed is the overall bullish set up for the month. In order to sustain our bullish call for the month, we NEEDED to sustain the important swing low of 454-460 but we fell out and down with decent volume which leads me to believe we have more downside coming if things don’t change rapidly. Our short targets were hit and surpassed as my target was swing low.

Diving into the H1 chart we notice we don’t see any signs of a reversal from RSI or STOCH. We will get some relief soon but I expect it to be sold off as support is now resistance. Usually, when we see an extension of the first move being 1.6 or greater we can expect another leg down to follow up. These factors all lead me to believe we will be trending lower after some consolidation.
I will look to add to my short position at the bounce and I’ll look to close all at the touch of swing low. Other targets are listed just in case we don’t make it down that far. Remember to always practice good risk management and remember not every trade is the trade.

Bitcoin Trend Sliding Negative Again, Drop Below 6,400 Support Should Give You Pause

Bitcoin has continued to follow the path laid out by retracing beyond the point projected, but this giveback has been due. The question is where will price stop? To get an accurate gauge of a continuance in the uptrend, BTC price movement must show proper pivot in conjunction with support and/or resistance. Looking at the price now, BTC is showing an attempt to hold resistance as support at 6400 once again. This is a major support level and should be watched carefully as the failure to hold this zone as support will lead to BTC seeking the next major support at 6k.

Rogue* Waves now show that the downdraft has taken back almost 1/2 of the previous leg up if looked at on a longer scale. However, keep in mind that the short scale pattern that has been trending up has been broken in being able to day trade BTC or its respective Altcoins that track together as the short-scale pattern has broken down to give way to a mid-long term retracement. BTC is now trading in the upper 6300’s, which is attempting to hold 6400 once again as support. Failure to do so is in the cards as of writing as MACD momentum is still negative with the histogram giving continuous ticks negatively.
What will BTC seek next? If proper support can be made for a pivot as shown, BTC will once again test 6800 and 7200 major resistance beyond that. Stochastic levels show a bottoming attempt but keep in mind that mid-term retracements as shown to bring more volatility in the extreme “danger zones” of stochastic levels, e.g. less than 20. Watch the histogram on MACD for momentum to slow down.
Note: Previous entry and exit strategy thus far have proved to be the optimal trades on BTC while maintaining lower risk. Considering the trend is confirmed down short-term with a lower low, a support pivot is needed before entering the market. The case for higher volatility to the upside allows for a pre-set entry point at 6550 once again, confirming a continuation in the uptrend for a short gain at the least if BTC is to seek 6800 resistance again.
BTC is currently a watch.
Futures Traders- trade the trend. The short-term trend is short, however, watch for potential pivot confirmation.

LISTEN! An Ethereum Trade You Should Have Made Yesterday

Ethereum has been up-trending nicely and we have officially broken out of every downtrend from 800 highs. So this leads me to believe we will continue to have a bullish month until we hit our next big downtrend line near 520-530. We will not guarantee this bullish month but we will always update levels to ensure our prediction stays intact.

 

So diving into the H4 chart we notice we had BEAR divergence as RSI gave a double top while price made an HH. What I’m looking at right now to ensure a bullish month to stay intact is for ETH to sustain a swing low of 455-460 while STOCH gets a full reset under the red. A hold of the black trend line is also important to me and breaking under with volume will have me questioning the strength of swing low support.
What this means for me in the MED term is this, ETH must sustain both swing low and black up-trend to minimize risk in longs. Breaching the trendline will have me watching for the retest to short (low volume pump) the trend line or break back over to long (high volume pump). You can also set a pre-set entry above swing high to have the least amount of risk if wanting to go long.
For short-term scalpers and day traders, we could see the SHORT term view play a little different. To me I notice a 5 wave move downward which is always accompanied by a 3 wave move in the opposite direction. So we can possibly see a short-term SHORT at play when the test of new downward line or fib retracement of .5-.68 near red box. Target will be .78-1 extension of previous move or touch of trend-line again. If Ethereum is able to match previous swing highs price then our short play will go out the window.

Bitcoin Price Action As Tight As It Has Ever Been; Carefully Play Technicals With Strategic Stop Loss Protection

Bitcoin has now begun to retrace as the Rogue* Wave track laid out continues to perform as expected. Overnight (US CST) trading held BTC to a tight range – less than 100 points to be precise while looking at the mid-scale chart. The sell signal given at 6800 resistance was the end target for BTC before attempting to retrace, and so far price has done exactly so. Now trading at about 6685, BTC is only just over 100 points down from the selling point, a sign that it is attempting to hold higher price levels near resistance while still a far cry from 6400 major support. This, however, is not a signal to re-enter quite yet. There are still a couple of factors to consider.

A breakthrough 6800 to hold this area as support would be optimal, but considering there is a retracement occurring, the major item at hand is BTC’s ability to hold support at 6400 and better yet 6450 considering this was the last pivot area for 6550 entry on the previous entry. Best case scenario for BTC would be to hold 6650, which is roughly 1/2 retracement of the previous leg up. This would best be matched with a drop in stochastic levels, but the likelihood of breaking below would be higher in this case as stochastic bottoming would entail a proper longer-term retracement.
Stochastic levels are trading in the 60’s zone and currently aim to go down further. The point to look out for is where price holds short and long-term support. Wait for the drop and cross in stochastic to confirm with support how exactly price will hold. This will be an important tool to watch when the hourly and 4-hour candle during the cross forms. The next level up for BTC to seek is 7200 (beyond 6800)
MACD continues to show downward momentum but also shows a slow down hourly. This is more of an exit tool, therefore it should be used by looking for a cross or some positive ticks.
BTC is currently a no play. Watch for support and pivot confirmation. The downside break of support will continue a no play situation.
Futures Traders – trade the trend. The short-term trend is currently short.