Trading Crypto: **Wednesday Evening: Ethereum Price Action Decouples From Bitcoin Pump

Ethereum has fallen hard since the last bullish push to 512. If you were long from previous charts they had very obvious signs to exit upon two bearish divergences across the two major tops in RSI and PRICE and also the smaller trends themselves.

 

The H4 STOCH was bound to crash after a historic 3 days in the upper range, ETH never experienced that before so I’ll be watching closely on what she does next.

Diving into the m30 chart here we try and note some things, after the bearish divergence we will be looking for bull divergence to help us signify a bottom and close any short potions or possibly find an entry for a long position.
After the first drop, ETH nearly made a full 1.618 ext which has in the past (90%) called for one more drop before an ultimate counter-trend. If we manage to get that last little drop to the 1.618 ext it will open up the bottom side for short-term scalpers. I am still inclined to say we are in for another drop but be wary on how BULL BTC may play a role if we manage to close on a High Time Frame in the 7k+ range then we may not drop any further at all.
Formed term swing traders look for support to hold while H4 STOCH resets near 455-460, We could also find support near 468-470 so watch STOCH levels and price action closely. We will long upon confirmation of support being held. Remember to always practice good risk management and use a stop loss.

BULL RUN: Bitcoin Breaks Above 7,400, Technicals Align With Fundamental Factors

Bitcoin breaks out and everyone rejoices, but why? What lies behind the movement…let’s examine the technicals.

 

The last 36 hours of trading have finally seen the upside break BTC has been searching for after finding ground near the 5800 mark, a pivot point that held the long-term downtrend channel lower trend boundary. As seen, this large channel/flag is still active and continues to maintain price in a systematic manner. The upper trend line that is now sought out currently stands at about 8k, but as a movement will have giveback and time value in-between, this is likely to sit at about 7800 for a while as discussed yesterday.

This large-scale pattern is also technically a bullish flag if looked at on a wide scale spanning back the total lifespan of BTC. However, the 7800-8k level must be broken to the upside and 8k held as solid support eventually for this to continue to stand true. At the moment, BTC is holding 7200 as support as it seeks out 7600 resistance with a high achieved at 7561 so far, only 49 points shy of hard resistance. This also completes the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern shown for over a week now with the Rogue* Wave System backing price movement. This leg is now complete.
Looking at the tech specs, BTC shows stochastic levels continuing to hold upper levels on the short, mid, and long-term (daily shown) scales. Daily is the back end performer as it aims for overbought(>80) levels once again but is in a straight path upward so far.
MACD levels are generally positive though ticking down on the smaller scales, showing retracement at bay. However, the pattern continues upward with higher highs and higher lows.
BTC is currently a hold. Downside protection should be placed under support for a break, generally around 7100.
Futures Traders- Trade the Trend. The short-term trend is currently long.

Ethereum Floats With Bitcoin Move; Beware Bearish Technicals That Still Dominate

ETH made a small push up last night and almost had my position stopped out but I noticed weakness with BEAR divergences on all small time frames and held strong, my stop was set at 486. Now as we fall we will look to close out our shorts in one of the two zones labeled. We will close 100% in the green zone and will look for bullishness near the first one.

Diving into the H4 chart we must note of some things that must be met in order to sustain the BULLISH MOVE up. We must have STOCH pivot while letting price settle in a nice support pocket. I also do not see any BULL on any small time frames, I will be looking for the H1 chart to give me signs of a bottom for the leg coming down. We will then look to go long upon confirmation of support being held. We will target a 1:1 ratio if we fall to the green zone and a 1.2 ratio if we stay above.
We must take note of the obvious HIDDEN BEAR on the D1 chart. IF price stagnates here for too long I can see the hidden bear taken seriously. We must get over the swing high to invalidate the bear set up, even if it’s just by a penny.
Remember to always use stop loss and practice good risk management.

Bitcoin Technicals: And Just Like That Everybody Can Breathe Again

Bitcoin continues to challenge the 6800 resistance area as the last 24 hours worth of trading have kept price levels hovering in this zone. As BTC continues to fight this level, the mid-scale and daily chart continues to show the short-term long pattern that has created the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that has formed. The continuation of the long pattern seeks the ultimate destination at the 7200 mark(which also happens to be the next resistance point beyond 6800). This marks the major pivot area for BTC, and at the least should see a retracement, if not before this level.

As discussed in yesterday’s analysis, support and resistance levels stand firm @ 6400/6800/7200 and 7600. However, a new piece of data has emerged with the Rogue* Wave System. Today sees the upside break target of the long-term trend changed. This means bear territory can be flipped into a possible bull market at the break of 7600 resistance. The question is if BTC has found its bottom, which is still market near the 5k region.
Stochastic levels continue to be in overbought(>80) zones on the mid-scale, with daily giving a pivot in lower levels. This is good for bullish momentum.
MACD shows positive momentum on every scale so far with hourly attempting to close across to the upside with lower price movement. Hence, a slow crossing once again.
BTC is currently a hold for participants, but a watch for those not in the market. Looking for a pullback on the short to mid-scale for support entry.
Futures Traders- trade the trend. The short-term trend is currently long. Be cautious of a pullback to re-test short-term supports

Ethereum Technicals Foreshadow Another Leg Up, But Could It Be Fool’s Gold?

Ethereum sustained its uptrend and now is resting on an important pivot. My previous notes suggested we may be in a larger ABC. If this is true then we can expect one more move up before an ultimate crash down. In order to sustain a possible leg up, we must sustain H4 pivot of 450-454. Watch for the H4 STOCH to come down to reset while price sustains H4 Pivot. Dropping down to H4 pivot will lower our topside for this next possible leg up to about swing high or slightly above. If price manages to not break Swing High we will have BEAR divergence confirmation on the D1 chart.

 

If price manages to sustain D1 pivot this will open up an upper target and we will not form bear divergence on the D1 charts.
Short term traders and scalpers can see a possible short scenario to the H4 pivot. We have formed BEAR divergences on all Small time frames which suggest a pullback. You could set your stop loss at H4 swing high of 475-480. For MED term swing traders look for support to hold at H4 pivot in order to long.
Breach of the H4 pivot immediately breaches our long calls. Remember to always use stop loss and practice good risk management.

Bitcoin Technicals Break Out!! Push Through 6,400 Resistance

Bitcoin travels beyond the breakpoint to the upside after a long bout down as it breaks the 6400 resistance level us US (CST) overnight trading. This has been a challenge for the last several days that saw BTC hold the 6k level solid, and for those of you following, should have been the watch indication to see how well the break occurs. The break overnight now puts BTC at the 6640 price point with resistance next at the 6800 level. Support and Resistance stand firm at 6k/6400/6800.

The wave pattern shows a slight break of more than 1/2 the previous leg up on the last leg down*, however, this does show a general outlay of what looks to be an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern as displayed on the daily scale. If this pattern holds true, the overall target should end at the 7200 resistance mark as a major pivot. The statistical odds of this are unfortunately brought down by the lower second shoulder, but does not cancel out this pattern for the time being as 6400 support currently holds.
Stochastic readings show increased buying power as a pattern is also long and the trend right now is the same. The overbought levels (>80) do indicate a sign of topping, but this is also a highly volatile zone for BTC price movement, especially after major support or resistance breaks.
MACD momentum now begins to tick positively as the recent continuation of upside movement shows the attempt by BTC price action to hold higher levels. Price looks to meet the MA(moving average line) as well around 6600 so far, so keep an eye for a retracement of sorts.
BTC is currently a watch with retracement on the hourly scale set for entry on lower stochastic levels.
Futures Traders- trade the trend. The short-term trend is confirmed long.

Trading Crypto: **Sunday Evening: In A Stagnant/Bear Market Traders May Have To Resort To A Tight ‘Scalping’ Strategy

Bitcoin followed the Rogue path once again with a retracement or continuance in the uptrend as it certifies its recent hold on 6k support. As BTC now seeks the 6400 resistance mark, there are a few things to consider. BTC hasn’t quite given the best scenario for a pivot so far – and going into a new week, there isn’t the base that was quite expected. What exactly does this mean? Frankly, a 6k support that was more firm or at the least another 6400 resistance test by now would have been a better situation. The market, however, rarely ever conforms perfectly. So that leaves BTC with the next best option for reaching new heights: hoping that the recent pivot hold will continue even with the overall downtrend still intact and more than 1/2 of the previous leg up being taken back. Statistically, this will be a difficult feat.

Rogue* Analysis has shown a high risk entry at 6200 to be solid so far with over 150 points on the table, but this is a short-term high risk gain. This should not be in the allocation for those with little understanding of market movement nor the proper risk tolerance.
Thus far, this leg does qualify as a higher low on the daily scale, and short-mid scale needs followthrough with higher highs and higher lows to confirm the trend long. Long-term breakout from bear market trajectory remains at roughly 8k – quite a distance away. Therefore, BTC short-term gains are the only strategically relevant entries. Keep in mind the risk at this time is also High* considering the trend, recent lows, and the fact that pivot plays are the likely entries to maximize profits which are small in comparison to historical data so far.
BTC is currently a No Play until pattern confirms long entry risk reduction.

Trading Crypto: **Saturday: Opportunities Available For Short-Term Bitcoin Bulls

Bitcoin overnight (US CST) has continued to hold the 6k major support area as it seeks to create a higher low for the bulls. The only area of concern as far as Rogue* Wave pattern shows is that price has already taken back more than 1/2 of the previous leg up – giving way for a greater possibility of the overall downtrend to continue longer-term. Still, with a tight range and ultra-low volatility once again, BTC continues to give a reason for bulls to make short-term longs; there is opportunity currently at bay.

A long for larger players would consist of entry @ 6200 with a watch on the upside target for 6400. This is the next optimal trade available, though categorized as Risk: High.
The total picture still consists of the downtrend intact with lower highs and lower lows as seen in the mid and long-term charts. Additionally, the hourly and 4-hour scale have begun to show signs of creating a bearish-pennant pattern that looks to have a downside break at around 6175.
For the weekend, taking a look at the tech specs shows stochastic levels attempting to seek higher levels with a bit of struggle. This will allow high-risk short gains, but not likely to much of a trade beyond 250 points as the stats show longs against the trend at this time.
MACD levels are positive with a recent cross to the upside as shown here on the 4-hour scale, a good sign for BTC at the moment as well. Safe plays for upside breakout on a pennant reversal with MACD considering should be watched around the 6400 area(resistance)
BTC is currently a No Play – watch for support to either be sought out over the next 24 hours with pennant break down.

Bitcoin Holds Support At 6,000, But Technicals Look And Feel Sluggish

Bitcoin has continued to trend down with the slowdown of the fallout apparent in the last twenty-four hours or so. As BTC broke bounds by snapping the 6400 support area, it also managed to maintain the longer-term major support area at 6k flat. This was also shown yesterday on the same daily scale as there was previously a pivot at around 6300. However, this hasn’t quite been the case on the daily close* level. The previous candle close on this scale was 6249, a mere 51 points away from the 6300 level. As close as this was, this shows a sign of BTC attempting to hold that pivot zone and thus far it maintains a close distance with current price trading at about 6259 – matched with ultra-low volatility for the day.

Rogue* Wave Analysis shows that the continuation of the downtrend is still in effect on the daily scale, however, the mid-scale 4-hour chart shows an attempt at this time for BTC to retrace at least some of the losses. This indicates an attempt to hold the major 6k support level as well. This is also coupled with the fact that price is set to meet the MA(moving average) line on the mid-scale. With the trend still down, there needs to be a high followed by a higher low* in order to bring down risk and factor in a possible entry.
Stochastic levels daily show a bottoming attempt as oversold(<20) levels are sought out. Matched with a 6k support hold, this would optimally be a solid daily pivot level.
MACD momentum is still negative with a cross in sight and brings continued awareness that BTC still seeks additional lows. Look for a pivot with the higher low to confirm any entrance to the market.
BTC is currently a No Play.
Futures Traders- trade the trend. The short-term trend is currently short with low volatility. Use the 5-15 minute candle scales to base decisions.

Ethereum Remains A Technical Mystery; ‘Chop’ Makes For Difficult Setup

Ethereum experienced a lot of chop these past two days in trading and our call yesterday to short the bounce has not yielded the desired results/targets. We are still very much in chop territory so entering into any position before a break of upside or downside can be seen as extremely risky. The question now is was that all downside ETH had to give.

Before we dive into the H1 chart I want to make note of the H4 STOCH pivoting right in the center of the graph which could spell trouble for both sides if on the wrong side. So now lets dive into the H1 chart and make note of certain things. First thing I see is we have lost a crucial support but we still hold the swing low.
H1 STOCH is bottomed out but we know that does not mean much as we can run sideways for some time. In order to ensure the bear case, we must let STOCH ride up but let price stay below STOP. If we get that I am one to say we need one more push down to break this low and find better support at 420. So with this set up we will look to SHORT the bounce (risky because it will be within the chop) and look to close at around 420.
The bullish case is that we may have formed a sort of a double bottom bull divergence if you will accept that as a double bottom. I am one to say it is not but it is something to be extremely aware of if going short. If it does turn out to be a BULL div then look for a 3 wave pattern into the opposite direction and look to short near the top.