Trading Crypto: **Monday Afternoon: Bitcoin On The Knife’s Edge, Could Break Big To The Upside

Bitcoin continues higher as the upside trend line of yesterday’s expanding megaphone pattern has been broken. The price point break at roughly 7535 shows the extension of the current leg as it seeks out the ultimate endpoint – the 6700 endpoint.

 

This is by far the most important and pivotal point for the year as this remains the long-term bearish trend line for BTC. This has been active the entire year for BTC (sloped) and has held well. Today, at exactly 7700 (7706 is the hard challenge point previously made) this will be the biggest test for BTC. A close above this line and continuation up with support holding at 7600 then 8k firm will allow BTC the chance to turn the long-term trend bullish.

The current leg up, as mentioned, has made an extended run as the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern created and played out last week found it’s target endpoint. However, considering the bull run and continued upside price action which found yesterday’s call to be ineffective, BTC is now hitting the hard challenge point with long-term resistance. Caution should be effectively placed at this level with fairly tight stops for those in the market.
Support and Resistance stand at 7200/7600/8k.
BTC is currently a hold for those in – no new entries to the market still. Wait for support confirmation once again once the long-term trend line is challenged.
Futures Traders- trade the trend. The short-term trend is currently long; again, watch for possible pivot of the long-term trend line at 7700.

Bitcoin Ran Last Week, But Sluggishness Plagues Current Technicals

Bitcoin has reached a point that is difficult to beat: continued upside after a quick bull run. Resistance on the upside at 7600 has given a hard point at the top, even as BTC continues to hold 7200 resistance firmly. Volatility stays at an average level with a short period of 100 plus point moves but maintains a 7300 to mid 7400 range consistently. After through Rogue* Wave Analysis and technical assessment, there are several things to consider with price movement over the next 24 hours.

Mid Scale shows BTC forming what looks to be an expanding megaphone pattern that seems to hold price within the boundaries fairly well at this point. The upside was tested today at the 7516 price level specifically and shows a hard bounce off of the upper trend line as shown. The downside happens to stay very close to the 7200 support line as well, and considering the giveback that BTC may likely follow suit with, this line is likely to be tested once again. The pattern also comes after a large leg up, so a break below will test the 1/2 retracement of the previous leg up at 6800 level which also happens to be the next firm support level down.
Stochastic readings now in overbought zones(>80) also look to give back by seeking lower levels across the board as the short, medium, and long(daily) term charts show.
MACD continues to stay negative and in fact, just crossed to the downside on the hourly scale.
This is all in conjunction with the likelihood of BTC seeking the MA(moving average) line on the daily scale.
BTC is currently a Sell/No Play until confirmation of support and retracement pivot.

Trading Crypto: **Sunday Morning: Ethereum Follows Alt-Coins Into Bearish Territory

Ethereum has made a huge swing in events and now is looking very, very weak. We have made a .78 retrace of the last bullish move. It has taken us far less time to drop this low than it too ETH to run up to 510. The speed and depth of this drop really makes me question all this bullish sentiment. We have also broken below a major H4 trend line and now we only have one more below to sustain this whole bullish movement. We also have not gotten H1 bull DIV and that alone tells me we can consider another drop before any significant test can be made.

 

 Checking on the bull scenario we could see ETH still sustaining everything needed to be able to consider this drop as an ABC zig-zag. A break lower than a 1:1 ratio will make me throw the bullish scenario away. This is still okay for an ABC zigzag and since we hit a perfect 1:1 ratio of the first minor leg down it still fits the criteria of an ABC zigzag. The bulls have H4 STOCH on their side and i can see a test of 450 again and if we break above and close 2-4 H4 candles we can set targets for D1 order block.
Now for the bears, we will need them to defend 450. With STOCH RSI being so low we can expect the bulls to try and push through H4 pivot of 450. If the bears can successfully keep the price below 450 with the STOCH RSI running high we can expect another hard drop. If price runs with STOCH RSI then we can expect the D1 order block to be tested again(469-480).
For the short term traders look for a possible RISKY short to the white zone, doing this will also break below another important H1 trend and again give the bears more strength. For MED term swing traders look for support to hold in the white zone.
A MED risk long can be taken and a target of 450 should be used to exit all positions, unless price really runs with STOCH. If price runs with STOCH we can hold positions and look for a sold close above 450 and target 480 D1 order block.
After the bounce to our predicted zone, we will look for our signals to short. Such as exhausted STOCH with price failing to gain any traction. Or any bearish divergence on smaller time frames such as H1 or lower. Our initial short target will be 400-404 but will update as we move forward.

Trading Crypto: **Saturday Morning: Downside Protection Is Key As $BTC Trades Sideways, But Don’t Sell Just Yet

Bitcoin now sits above support at 7200 as it trends a bit sideways. Not uncommon, it’s attempt to seek out 7600 resistance once again mid-term (shown on the 4-hour scale) is only plagued by the fact BTC maintained a recent higher high followed by the current short-term lower low. This would technically be a sideways trend, however, BTC holding the 7200 support area allows it to show a higher low* overall as the recent run-up from the 6k major support area shows. This maintains the overall shorter term trend long.

Rogue Waves show that BTC current trend can be continued if the current meeting of price and the MA (moving average: blue line on the current candle) can be broken and held on the upside as well. Thus far after the run-up, two retracement points have been shown for a couple of days now, with the first being a 1/3 retrace at the 7200 support area. The second is at 1/2 retracement which just happens to be the 6800 support area. Support and Resistance have played out perfectly and stand firm at 6800/7200/7600 – trading firmly on 400 point bands or levels.
With the current price floating in the 7300 range, there is skepticism as the long top wick created by the red candle in recent trading was met with a firm test of the 7200 mark. This is also the reason the sideways short-term trend can be dangerous, however, a hold of BTC is of importance unless this support level is broken.
Stochastic readings are bottoming as needed with a potential pivot at or near the oversold level (<20). This is in line with the higher low on the mid-term mentioned holding support.
MACD also remains negative at this time but seeks to cross to the upside as it is ticking positively.
BTC is currently a hold with downside protection under support.

Bitcoin Technicals Now Locked Into A Battle; Go Higher Or Breakdown To Scary Price Points

Bitcoin maintains higher levels of trading as it goes into Thursday morning (US CST*) trading and giveback has been little to none. As the mid-scale shows, BTC now sits around the 7400 area, the push beyond 7200 resistance to hold as support has been successful the first time, however, will look to be tested once again as discussed yesterday.

 

This will allow for two things: the confirmation of higher support levels working and proper continuation of the uptrend after a higher low is registered. Continued higher highs and higher lows needed at this time as BTC is in a crucial pivotal point long-term.

The large-scale flag channel formation has downside potential still at 4800, however, the upside break must happen beyond the 8k area. As the 7600 target is next, BTC must first maintain solid grounding, and this is the main point when considering a re-test of support.
Looking at the tech specs at this time is a challenge as well, considering stochastic levels have hovered in upper regions on the lower time frames.
However, the mid-scale as shown shows an exit from overbought (>80) levels once again
This is one big fact when considering sell on positions to buy back lower, especially considering this is a potential longer-term pivot. This will also bring higher volatility, and therefore downside protection under support should be made firm if no sell is put in place.
MACD shows continued upward momentum but does happen to be ticking negatively to attempt to cross – another reason to protect positions at this time if holding.
BTC is currently a Sell with buyback lower after support test.
Small pennant forms as well mid-scale, therefore upside break entry pre-set at 7560.
Futures Traders- trade their trend. The short-term trend is currently long, however, giveback expected soon so watch the pattern.

Trading Crypto: **Wednesday Evening: Ethereum Price Action Decouples From Bitcoin Pump

Ethereum has fallen hard since the last bullish push to 512. If you were long from previous charts they had very obvious signs to exit upon two bearish divergences across the two major tops in RSI and PRICE and also the smaller trends themselves.

 

The H4 STOCH was bound to crash after a historic 3 days in the upper range, ETH never experienced that before so I’ll be watching closely on what she does next.

Diving into the m30 chart here we try and note some things, after the bearish divergence we will be looking for bull divergence to help us signify a bottom and close any short potions or possibly find an entry for a long position.
After the first drop, ETH nearly made a full 1.618 ext which has in the past (90%) called for one more drop before an ultimate counter-trend. If we manage to get that last little drop to the 1.618 ext it will open up the bottom side for short-term scalpers. I am still inclined to say we are in for another drop but be wary on how BULL BTC may play a role if we manage to close on a High Time Frame in the 7k+ range then we may not drop any further at all.
Formed term swing traders look for support to hold while H4 STOCH resets near 455-460, We could also find support near 468-470 so watch STOCH levels and price action closely. We will long upon confirmation of support being held. Remember to always practice good risk management and use a stop loss.

BULL RUN: Bitcoin Breaks Above 7,400, Technicals Align With Fundamental Factors

Bitcoin breaks out and everyone rejoices, but why? What lies behind the movement…let’s examine the technicals.

 

The last 36 hours of trading have finally seen the upside break BTC has been searching for after finding ground near the 5800 mark, a pivot point that held the long-term downtrend channel lower trend boundary. As seen, this large channel/flag is still active and continues to maintain price in a systematic manner. The upper trend line that is now sought out currently stands at about 8k, but as a movement will have giveback and time value in-between, this is likely to sit at about 7800 for a while as discussed yesterday.

This large-scale pattern is also technically a bullish flag if looked at on a wide scale spanning back the total lifespan of BTC. However, the 7800-8k level must be broken to the upside and 8k held as solid support eventually for this to continue to stand true. At the moment, BTC is holding 7200 as support as it seeks out 7600 resistance with a high achieved at 7561 so far, only 49 points shy of hard resistance. This also completes the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern shown for over a week now with the Rogue* Wave System backing price movement. This leg is now complete.
Looking at the tech specs, BTC shows stochastic levels continuing to hold upper levels on the short, mid, and long-term (daily shown) scales. Daily is the back end performer as it aims for overbought(>80) levels once again but is in a straight path upward so far.
MACD levels are generally positive though ticking down on the smaller scales, showing retracement at bay. However, the pattern continues upward with higher highs and higher lows.
BTC is currently a hold. Downside protection should be placed under support for a break, generally around 7100.
Futures Traders- Trade the Trend. The short-term trend is currently long.

Ethereum Floats With Bitcoin Move; Beware Bearish Technicals That Still Dominate

ETH made a small push up last night and almost had my position stopped out but I noticed weakness with BEAR divergences on all small time frames and held strong, my stop was set at 486. Now as we fall we will look to close out our shorts in one of the two zones labeled. We will close 100% in the green zone and will look for bullishness near the first one.

Diving into the H4 chart we must note of some things that must be met in order to sustain the BULLISH MOVE up. We must have STOCH pivot while letting price settle in a nice support pocket. I also do not see any BULL on any small time frames, I will be looking for the H1 chart to give me signs of a bottom for the leg coming down. We will then look to go long upon confirmation of support being held. We will target a 1:1 ratio if we fall to the green zone and a 1.2 ratio if we stay above.
We must take note of the obvious HIDDEN BEAR on the D1 chart. IF price stagnates here for too long I can see the hidden bear taken seriously. We must get over the swing high to invalidate the bear set up, even if it’s just by a penny.
Remember to always use stop loss and practice good risk management.

Bitcoin Technicals: And Just Like That Everybody Can Breathe Again

Bitcoin continues to challenge the 6800 resistance area as the last 24 hours worth of trading have kept price levels hovering in this zone. As BTC continues to fight this level, the mid-scale and daily chart continues to show the short-term long pattern that has created the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that has formed. The continuation of the long pattern seeks the ultimate destination at the 7200 mark(which also happens to be the next resistance point beyond 6800). This marks the major pivot area for BTC, and at the least should see a retracement, if not before this level.

As discussed in yesterday’s analysis, support and resistance levels stand firm @ 6400/6800/7200 and 7600. However, a new piece of data has emerged with the Rogue* Wave System. Today sees the upside break target of the long-term trend changed. This means bear territory can be flipped into a possible bull market at the break of 7600 resistance. The question is if BTC has found its bottom, which is still market near the 5k region.
Stochastic levels continue to be in overbought(>80) zones on the mid-scale, with daily giving a pivot in lower levels. This is good for bullish momentum.
MACD shows positive momentum on every scale so far with hourly attempting to close across to the upside with lower price movement. Hence, a slow crossing once again.
BTC is currently a hold for participants, but a watch for those not in the market. Looking for a pullback on the short to mid-scale for support entry.
Futures Traders- trade the trend. The short-term trend is currently long. Be cautious of a pullback to re-test short-term supports

Ethereum Technicals Foreshadow Another Leg Up, But Could It Be Fool’s Gold?

Ethereum sustained its uptrend and now is resting on an important pivot. My previous notes suggested we may be in a larger ABC. If this is true then we can expect one more move up before an ultimate crash down. In order to sustain a possible leg up, we must sustain H4 pivot of 450-454. Watch for the H4 STOCH to come down to reset while price sustains H4 Pivot. Dropping down to H4 pivot will lower our topside for this next possible leg up to about swing high or slightly above. If price manages to not break Swing High we will have BEAR divergence confirmation on the D1 chart.

 

If price manages to sustain D1 pivot this will open up an upper target and we will not form bear divergence on the D1 charts.
Short term traders and scalpers can see a possible short scenario to the H4 pivot. We have formed BEAR divergences on all Small time frames which suggest a pullback. You could set your stop loss at H4 swing high of 475-480. For MED term swing traders look for support to hold at H4 pivot in order to long.
Breach of the H4 pivot immediately breaches our long calls. Remember to always use stop loss and practice good risk management.