LISTEN! An Ethereum Trade You Should Have Made Yesterday

Ethereum has been up-trending nicely and we have officially broken out of every downtrend from 800 highs. So this leads me to believe we will continue to have a bullish month until we hit our next big downtrend line near 520-530. We will not guarantee this bullish month but we will always update levels to ensure our prediction stays intact.

 

So diving into the H4 chart we notice we had BEAR divergence as RSI gave a double top while price made an HH. What I’m looking at right now to ensure a bullish month to stay intact is for ETH to sustain a swing low of 455-460 while STOCH gets a full reset under the red. A hold of the black trend line is also important to me and breaking under with volume will have me questioning the strength of swing low support.
What this means for me in the MED term is this, ETH must sustain both swing low and black up-trend to minimize risk in longs. Breaching the trendline will have me watching for the retest to short (low volume pump) the trend line or break back over to long (high volume pump). You can also set a pre-set entry above swing high to have the least amount of risk if wanting to go long.
For short-term scalpers and day traders, we could see the SHORT term view play a little different. To me I notice a 5 wave move downward which is always accompanied by a 3 wave move in the opposite direction. So we can possibly see a short-term SHORT at play when the test of new downward line or fib retracement of .5-.68 near red box. Target will be .78-1 extension of previous move or touch of trend-line again. If Ethereum is able to match previous swing highs price then our short play will go out the window.

Bitcoin Price Action As Tight As It Has Ever Been; Carefully Play Technicals With Strategic Stop Loss Protection

Bitcoin has now begun to retrace as the Rogue* Wave track laid out continues to perform as expected. Overnight (US CST) trading held BTC to a tight range – less than 100 points to be precise while looking at the mid-scale chart. The sell signal given at 6800 resistance was the end target for BTC before attempting to retrace, and so far price has done exactly so. Now trading at about 6685, BTC is only just over 100 points down from the selling point, a sign that it is attempting to hold higher price levels near resistance while still a far cry from 6400 major support. This, however, is not a signal to re-enter quite yet. There are still a couple of factors to consider.

A breakthrough 6800 to hold this area as support would be optimal, but considering there is a retracement occurring, the major item at hand is BTC’s ability to hold support at 6400 and better yet 6450 considering this was the last pivot area for 6550 entry on the previous entry. Best case scenario for BTC would be to hold 6650, which is roughly 1/2 retracement of the previous leg up. This would best be matched with a drop in stochastic levels, but the likelihood of breaking below would be higher in this case as stochastic bottoming would entail a proper longer-term retracement.
Stochastic levels are trading in the 60’s zone and currently aim to go down further. The point to look out for is where price holds short and long-term support. Wait for the drop and cross in stochastic to confirm with support how exactly price will hold. This will be an important tool to watch when the hourly and 4-hour candle during the cross forms. The next level up for BTC to seek is 7200 (beyond 6800)
MACD continues to show downward momentum but also shows a slow down hourly. This is more of an exit tool, therefore it should be used by looking for a cross or some positive ticks.
BTC is currently a no play. Watch for support and pivot confirmation. The downside break of support will continue a no play situation.
Futures Traders – trade the trend. The short-term trend is currently short.

Trading Crypto: **Sunday PM: We Told You To Hold For A Move Higher, Did You Listen? (what’s next is inside)

Bitcoin has finally broken out of the trading channel. Still holding with no downside protection hit (stop). Good news for holders this AM as BTC trades at resistance near 6800. Hourly shows clear indication of the uptrend still being intact, as well as the mid-term scale (4-hour).

 

Taking into account that the previous leg up consolidated into a flag-like pattern, the fact that yesterday’s trading held downside to specifically less than 1/2 of the previous leg down, BTC Rogue* Wave Analysis showed the upside break at 6615 – which occurred in a timely manner as well. This leg up, however, is overextended, and as the mid-term chart shows, there is a flat line at current price showing hard resistance at the 6800 mark.

With the overall downtrend still intact long-term, 6800 must act as support once again to seek out higher levels and bring more of a comfort level for long trades as well as lowering risk. There is also that the daily chart shows two important items.
First, this leg up needs to register a higher high by candle close*. This is the previous level that BTC pivoted around June 20th and continued the downtrend for a lower low.
Secondly, this leg up is still slightly less than 1/2 of the previous leg down, which indicates the long-term trend still being down. This can be challenged by the close above 6800 to hold as new support. There will be retracement along the way, but BTC needs only one higher low overall after that support hold to consider changing the overall trend long-term.
Stochastic levels are now in the upper region once again without seeking out oversold levels, which is a sign for proper risk management as those lower levels will be sought out soon.
MACD momentum is positive, yes. However, it is only slightly remaining so.
BTC is currently a Sell to take profit at 6800(or close) with a Net Profit of 250 points or roughly 3.7%

Trading Crypto: **Saturday AM: Bitcoin Could Break Either Way At This Point, Act Accordingly

Bitcoin overnight (US CST) has traded at a level-off point as it has struggled to break through the 6600 mark, which has revealed itself as a price point that has acted somewhat as a support/resistance area. However, actual support and resistance currently stand at 6400 and 6800. There has been a range of about 250 points, from 6450 to 6700 that BTC has traded within over the past week or so, and this has shown the consistent tests of support as brief touches of the 6400 mark and a solid pullback showing an effective Rogue* Wave pattern were completed. Notice the 5-wave form of BTC as well, as the price has also struggled to break higher. This technically should be continued with the retracement (if the trend continues up) and should re-test support once again.

 

 

The current long pattern throughout the week with higher highs and higher lows has also been solid – that is until today. Rogue* Wave calculation along with the tech specs show that today will bring a lower low to finally give a break out of tight trading range. This will come at the break of 6550.
One thing to notice going into weekend trading is that there is the chance of a mid-term bullish pennant being played out from the last weeks trading. The upside break to this pattern stands at 6660, and therefore entries and stops can be placed accordingly.
As stochastic hourly seeks lower levels at the moment, the possibilities are open for either break.
MACD momentum is slightly negative but gives no clear indication as it may turn neutral easily at this point and should more so be used for an exit strategy instead.
BTC is currently a hold with downside protection still under support.

Trading Crypto: **Friday Afternoon: Sideways Trend Presents ‘Scalping’ Opportunity

Bitcoin overnight (US CST) managed to re-test the 6400 support level once again – a sign that the struggle to go up inside of this short-term uptrend has presented itself. This is the second major test of this support level. Now as price trends sideways, BTC has begun to build something of a “sideways” trend channel. There are two things to keep in mind at this point. First, the Rogue* Wave target at 6800 has also been tested once already. Secondly, looking at the hourly scale(shown), BTC still trends up – even if slightly – with higher highs and higher lows technically. Neither a major support nor a price low or pivot from the privies legs in recent price action has yet to be broken. However, downside protection should still be placed underneath support.

The current Mid Risk BTC entry area has been at 6550 with a downside stop at 6350 considering a 6400 support break would be a new pivotal price break as well. Overnight trading also clearly gives a picture that this level held well so far, giving the channel an almost flat bottom which will likely seek resistance to test once again. Additionally, price is to meet the MA(moving average) line soon at about 6568 as of writing.
Let’s take a look at the tech specs.
Stochastic levels are somewhat sideways in the upper regions, and pivots on the hourly scale just show that there is standing buying power.
MACD is the real indicator of the day. With hourly, 4 – hour mid-scale and daily all showing positive momentum, the only indication of sell, in this case, would be the break of support and likely price point of 6350.
BTC is currently a hold.
Futures Traders – trade the trend. The short-term trend is sideways – use 15-minute charts to catch long calls if BTC looks to hold current levels.

”In the current bear market, tight stops and unusual volatility (or lack thereof) are the name of the game…”

Bitcoin has been moving sideways and refuses to test any support/resistance levels in the last couple of days, since the last test of support at 6400. The previous Rogue Wave pivot did attain the 6800 mark, and gave a hard bounce as soon as it was achieved. Now looking at a slow sort of retrace, BTC currently trades at 6585 as it drops slightly below the MA(moving average) line. The previous day or so price range has been about 150 points, and there has been much indecision as shown by multiple doji’s or candles within said range.

The daily chart does continue to grow and MACD shown momentum continuously upward, however the struggle at 6800 has yet to be re-visited which should be the final test for the uptrend to continue. Keep in mind that the longer-term uptrend must break 8k(currently) to have standing as a long-term trend reversal. The overall trend is still down, and in the current bear market, tight stops and unusual volatility at odd times are the name of the game. This is why you must be aware of support and resistance levels constantly during this period.
Support and Resistance currently stands firm at 6k/6400/6800/7200.
The tech specs also show some struggle and indecision as stochastic on the 4 hour scale shown is moving sideways, and as the “5-wave” form is almost clear cut, expect support to once again be tested.
MACD is negative(barely) but mostly flat at the moment, which should not be used as a gauge for the market in indecisive times.
With little movement and likelihood of support re-test, BTC is currently a No Play.
Upside breakout buys should be placed at no less than 6660.
Futures Traders – trade the trend. The short-term trend is sideways. No trade. Confirm the trend first, and until then practice capital conservation.

Bitcoin Technicals: Weeding Out The Dreamers, Rewarding The Grinders

Bitcoin now shows yesterday’s movement to be on track exactly to Rogue* Wave expectation as the retrace movement has now bounced at the support level shown. 6450 is the 1/2 retracement point of the previous leg up, and as stochastic took a dive on the four-hour scale, BTC managed to keep the level at that point and show that 6400 still maintains support and 6450 is surely the pivot area. Now, what comes next will determine if the uptrend is here to stay.

BTC price volatility has been fairly high, and with this current candle, there is little movement. However, there is the fact that price has met the MA(moving average) lines on several times scales, and on several occasions to give it a boost in the right direction. Upward momentum has also been held by the fact that support holds have been solid at every stage, even on the minor scale. A step-ladder like pattern with confirmed higher highs and higher lows additionally helped after a massive breakout from the pennant/channel BTC had formed at the end of June.
Now, BTC looks to aim its sights on reaching the 7k mark. The only blockade is that there is hard resistance at 6800, which can clearly be seen with the wick on the previous candle ending at 6784. There is also the fact that the mid-scale shown also is flat-lining, however, there is room for more upside as the next stochastic cross has now taken place as MACD also looks to cross to the upside.
BTC is currently a buy above support(6550) or hold.
Downside protection under support at 6350.
Futures Trader – Trade the trend. The short-term trend is long. Use 15-minute intervals.

Ethereum Price Action Weakens After Short Run; Possible Short Position Entry

Ethereum has been in a recent uptrend after posting fresh lows in June but is showing signs of weakness. Will the uptrend continue or have we already maxed out our bullish run.

Yesterday night ETH gave many signs to exit near the swing high as every small time frame was showing bearishness and the H4 STOCH was really topped off. Today ethereum is in a downtrend again but this may or may not be the beginning of the continued descent to 350. Diving into the H1 chart we see the STOCH bottomed out while price to have seemed to have found support. The STOCH shows signs of hope for the bulls as this may allow them to have enough momentum to break over the black downtrend and hold for 2-4 H1 candles. If Ethereum is able to do that we could set to enter near the blue line and targets for the long are in green.
The RSI, however, tells a different story. RSI is seeming to match price action and that tells me the decent has more room to fall. The H4 STOCH looks nasty as its coming straight down with no signs of a pivot yet. I’m in favor of short again until we test the previous swing high. So in order to short we want to look for price action to stall at the black downtrend line again with the H1 STOCH topping out again if we get both of those we can look to enter the short near the top of the bounce. A safer entry could be found after confirmation of breaking and rejecting our most recent uptrend line shown in the chart. Targets are in red for shorts and green for the longs, I am in favor of short and will place stop near blue.
Remember to always use good risk management.

Bitcoin Technicals Tell A Story; Short Term Sell, Longer Term Uptrend

Bitcoin has finally made a short-term jump to create a solid foundation above the 6k level. After heading up and breaking 6k, the 6400 resistance level was broken to become support once again. The Rogue* Wave pattern, as discussed yesterday, was fully deployed as the first leg up creating the higher high with the bounce off of 6400, then gave the 1/2 retrace leg to create the higher low. The pivot area left the gap open for entry at 6325 (roughly) and allowed for a 300 point run as an exit strategy would have made for a solid trade.

That leaves BTC at another point now. As BTC trades at just below 6600, it is just 200 points away from hard resistance at 6800 again. BTC has previously had some price resistance at the 6600 level, which is why a retrace is likely at this point. Currently, the downdraft has taken back 1/3 of the previous leg up, however, the 1/2 retrace point is more likely and would be a better fit for a continuance of the short-term uptrend with a higher low. This would be registered at 6450, which is basically another test of the 6400 support level.
The next leg up would likely seek out a challenge on the 7k mark – if 6800 resistance can be broken.
Stochastic levels hourly are attempting to pivot, however lower levels are still possible.
MACD indicates the uptrend still intact hourly, and the larger scales continue to have bullish momentum -especially looking at the daily chart.
BTC is currently a Sell short-term
Longer Term: Hold as uptrend is active
Futures Traders – Trade the Trend. The short-term trend is long

Bitcoin Price Action Creeps Past Resistance Levels; But Long Term Trend Remains Negative

Bitcoin in US (CST) overnight trading performs as expected with a breakout from standstill levels. After reaching new recent heights by breaking back above 6k and then 6400, BTC now solidifies that post at it holds 6400 as support along with the major support level at 6k. The pullback after the first run up was completely made whole as the first Rogue* Wave retracement point was also hit, just shy of about 20 points. The initial target was at 6240, while yesterday BTC managed to briefly take the 6260 mark. This is 1/3 retracement of the previous leg up, a confirmation of a higher low in conjunction with a wave completion. Additionally, the drawdown was held to a minimum during the last day’s selloff, which indicated that buying power has held strong and continues to drive BTC to seek out the next level of resistance at 6800.

Keep in mind that support and resistance levels still stand at 6k/6400/6800/7200.
As stochastic shows on the mid-scale 4-hour term(shown), the pullback was matched with about a 1/2 pullback in stochastic levels that showed BTC would not immediately break down has these levels reached oversold(<20) territory.
Additionally, MACD levels show a continued rise as they are still positive, even as they neutralized. This is also the reason this indicator should be used mostly for an exit strategy, not to deal with entries.
BTC is currently a hold. A stop should be marked below support as long-term trend is still down, even with current momentum being positive.
Futures Traders- Trade the Trend. The short-term trend is currently long.