Trading Crypto: **Sunday Funday! Bitcoin Bullish Channel Performs True To Form

**”My futures so bright, I gotta wear shades.” Continue to keep a sharp eye on our trading content. Over the past three months, our own Rogue Trader has been “stop loss’ing” his way to incredible returns. In the midst of a 9-month long bear market what he is achieving is worth your time and evaluation. These daily analysis pieces are written directly by him and follows his $BTC trades tick by tick.

Bitcoin sits near highs as US (CST) overnight trading brings volatility as discussed. BTC has remained solid on a hold of the 6800 support level and steadily held the 7k mark as a marker to show the continuation of the trend upward. Breaking to the upside, BTC sought out 7400 in the end as it finally broke through and held the 7200 resistance level. This will serve as an important level as well as 6800 to try and keep firm over the next week.

Rogue* Wave projections are poised to show perfect alignment once again as the Rogue* Wave track laid out for the week has come to life with near perfect accuracy. This was shown first by the selling point of BTC to retrace back to 6760. This target was almost hit with the BTC low and pivot at 6802, a mere 42 points away. This was in conjunction with 6800 support being held firmly. Hitting the lower trend line of the bullish channel, this was also the 1/3 pivot retracement of the previous leg up. Additionally, stochastic levels mid-term had bottomed and pivoted in the oversold (<80) region, allowing buying power to be perfectly aligned for the next stage in the uptrend. This stage was pre-determined to seek out the 7400 mark, which overnight trading hit with a high of 7429. Taking into account the pivot projection(6760) and the target(7400), this totaled 640 points. Actual BTC price action has achieved 627 points(7429 – 6802). Rogue* Wave Analysis strikes again.
BTC now seeks the break of the upper trend line briefly and may seek to hit it once again. However, overbought (>80) levels in stochastic readings and a potential topping to retrace once again on the mid and daily scales bring higher risk.
MACD readings have ticked negatively 3 times in a row on the mid-scale as shown.
BTC risk management at this time calls for a sell to take profits. Continuation of trend will call for a buyback. Short-term opportunities hourly may be present, however, alt-coin risk is lower in these conditions for reasonable gains.

Trading Crypto: **Friday Afternoon: Bitcoin Bullish Channel Remains The Play, Expect A Push To 7,200

Bitcoin has shown resilient price action in the last 24 hours as 6800 support held firm. With the mid-scale chart showing the pivot, BTC can be seen with no break of this support area as a low of 6802 was hit. This lines up with the fact that BTC has also formed an interesting channel within the uptrend as shown. The top end of this channel now stands at 7200 as it is inclined; 7100 was previously hit and took a hard bounce. This channel has served as a hard guiding line for BTC price action for the last couple of weeks. US (CST) Thursday trading saw the bottom end of the channel tested as well with a hard bounce at the 6800 mark.

Rogue* Wave Analysis still shows the two pivot areas after the sell order was issued. The first pivot happened to come with a light test as 6800 and was hit yesterday; considering the channel lower trend line, support, and the first Rogue Wave pivot calculation happened to line up at this point – there was a hat trick to boost the bullish sentiment and buy signal if considering entry. However, this time there was a fourth item to take into account – a rare sight. Stochastic levels were oversold at this point – a buyers dream.
Stochastic levels now seek overbought (>80) conditions once again on the midterm scale.
MACD readings have begun to tick positively, however, may still meander a bit as a pivot is truly needed.
BTC is currently a short-term buy – channel momentum still holding firm. Short-term entries should be watched on 1-hour and less time frame.
Futures Traders – trade the trend. The short-term trend is long.

Bitcoin Breaks Lower! Seeks 6,800 Resistance, Tread Lightly And Set Tight Stop Loss Targets

Bitcoin breaks below 7k to the downside as the 6800 support levels are now being sought out. US (CST) overnight trading sees 7k tested but ultimately broken in early morning trading as the MA(moving average) line was met on the midterm scale as shown and the price took a hard dive. With more momentum to the downside likely to come today, the downside volatility now seeks the two Rogue* Pivot areas shown for the last three days of trading after the topping process completed.

This included BTC having a leg up that surpassed the milestone 6800 resistance to see the upper trend line of the megaphone pattern midterm as well as an attempt to near the long-term upper trend line of the Bearish* trend overall this year. The uptrend remains intact, however just as expected, BTC now looks to give back some with retrace legs that should hold less than 1/2 of the previous leg up for optimal entry or continuation upward.
Stochastic has taken a dive as expected as well, now seeking oversold(<20) territory. This remains the case on the 4-hour scale as well as the hourly scale, but daily still remains in the upper region of overbought(>80). The daily candle will be tested thoroughly today as the price is set to meet the MA line on this scale at precisely 6800 support.
MACD momentum has crossed to the downside mid-term and is still on a sell signal.
BTC is currently a No Play.
Futures Traders – Trade the Trend. The short-term trend is currently short.

Bitcoin Technicals Call For A Sell, And Buy Back At Lower Levels

Bitcoin, in US (CST) overnight trading, has had very little movement as the mid-term scale shows. The topping process continues to show resistance at this level with BTC still trading at the 7k mark. 6800 is the next support level down which does still hold firm. The issue will remain if this stands true with the retrace leg. BTC Rogue* Wave pivot areas are as marked and show the two optimal pivot areas as discussed yesterday. These will keep BTC losses to less than 1/2 of the previous leg up and allow the price to seek new short-term highs. Seeking new short-term highs will come in the form of attaining the upper trend line of the expanding megaphone in addition to the long-term upper trend line.

At the moment, the low volatility and 7k mark being tested are only momentarily being propped up by the MA (moving average) line.
Stochastic levels are now leaving the overbought (>80) region to seek lower levels in good form. This will follow with the break of the 7k mark.
MACD levels now continue to tick negatively – which for BTC plays would signal a sell issue if holding a position.
With little change in the last 24 hours, the analysis is the same from yesterday into today’s trading with targets remaining as projected.
BTC is currently a Sell, at least in the short term. Look for retrace higher low*.
Futures Traders – Trade the Trend. The short-term trend is currently sideways, a no-trade scenario. However, look for the break lower and prepare for shorts using the 15-minute scale or less.

Trading Crypto: **Tuesday Afternoon: After Push Beyond 7,000, Will Bitcoin Hold Support?

Bitcoin breaks the pennant pattern flat top to seek out new short-term highs as 6800 resistance is broken to the upside. US (CST*) overnight trading shows the upshot with BTC breaking through the 7k mark as well, notably hitting the upper trend line of the expanding megaphone pattern shown on the mid-scale chart. Consistent higher highs and higher lows confirm the short-to-mid scale uptrend with BTC intact. The upper trend line has given some resistance to the continuation of BTC at the moment, and therefore likely calls for a sell order for speculators that took the 6800+ buy on BTC to see these current short-term highs. Now trading at a likely extreme before attempting a higher low to be registered, this provides a pivot area that sees a risk profile including a sell with the overall downtrend to give back some gains, at least in the short term, to continue the uptrend.

This will come with an important factor: how well will BTC hold support? The next major support level down is at 6800, but the fact still remains that this leg up should see proper wave formation that includes keeping 1/2 retracement of the previous leg. Rogue* Wave Analysis sees two scenarios for an optimal continuation of the uptrend.
First comes the 6760 pivot area which sees the upside seeking the long-term upper trend line sought out in the 7400 region. The second option comes with the pivot area being in the 6600 zone which has served as in interim support/resistance area for BTC. This pivot area would seek an upside that minimally seeks 7200 – a more daunting sign for bulls as this would fall short to break the long-term uptrend. However, a break higher needs to be seen in either scenario to show the longevity of higher prices. Step one comes with the retrace and pivot.
BTC is currently a Sell for buyback in lower conditions with a retrace move. This is the lowest risk option other than holding.
Futures Traders- trade the trend. The short-term trend is currently long, however, look to pivot short-term(15-minute scale) with shorts now in sight.

Trading Crypto: **Monday Afternoon: Setting Very Specific Stop Loss Positions Are Critical At The Moment

Bitcoin early Monday morning (US CST) trends slightly up as prices continue to hold higher levels and seek out the 6800 resistance mark. Considering this is an important resistance area to beat, it should come as no surprise if it is broken through rapidly as pressure build-up from the currently mid-term pattern may allow an upshot for BTC to challenge this area. BTC has formed what looks to be a small pennant mid-term as shown, and the flat line at the top suggests that the pressure mentioned may be there. The flatline entry point stands at about 6730.

This pattern still remains within the larger expanding megaphone pattern, and ultimately, within the overall bearish trend that BTC has suffered this year. The downside pressure to BTC at the moment is seen by looking at the last 4 challenges within the pennant(wicks) that were strongly rejected at the 6800 resistance mark. This is a warning that a downside break out of the mid-term pennant could spell trouble – see the previous analysis to cover the Rogue* Wave track of BTC which still stands true.
Stochastic mid-term now seeks to pivot up, however, has struggled to bring a price break even in overbought (>80) conditions. Daily still remains bullish.
MACD readings are stagnant with the low volatility, and daily still gives more bullish sentiment – however, this should be used as an exit strategy tool at this time.
BTC is currently a No Play – those who entered in the 6730 region (risk: Med) should remain on a hold. Downside protection should be under 6600 at this time. This is a pattern break. If looking for a break entry – Place a buy above resistance (6800).
Futures Traders – trade the trend. The short-term trend(15m scale) is currently long – but beware: pattern closure coming soon. Expect a break.

Trading Crypto: **Friday Afternoon: Tight Range, But Potential Downside Risk Looms Large

Bitcoin price action stays the same over the last 24 hours as 6400 support holds at the moment. With a tight range of little over 100 points, there has been no considerable movement that has allowed BTC to continue up or down – but in line with low volatility, has kept a stable hold on support as shown. The 4 hour mid-scale chart shows this as the expanding megaphone pattern has held strong even amid all the news and chatter. However, the math tells the entire story, and the current state of BTC shows exactly why risk levels for downside have increased.

As Rogue* Analysis shows, there are several factors bogging down BTC. With the daily scale bringing bullish sentiment with supposed buying power in the form of stochastic levels rising and MACD crossing to the upside, the price has moved little to none in comparison to the previous leg down. As the previous leg down totaled 2400 points(8400 – 6000) to seek the 6k major support area, this leg up has taken back 800 points (6000 – 6800) in total. This is 1/3 of the previous leg up. With stochastic levels topping on the larger scales, the 6800 resistance mark has held firm and could provide the exact pivot for a continued downside.
Combine much of this with the fact that the overall market trend remains down and the BTC downside target(to the lower trend line) was not achieved. With lower highs and lower lows intact – this may be the case quite soon as volatility buildup will soon break one way or another, with statistical odds of downside much greater with the struggle to maintain current price levels, let alone break resistance peak at 6800. The overall downside target for the market to see the downtrend leg completed remains at 5200.
With Rogue* Analysis, the pivot at 6800 can be calculated to see the extension of the next leg down in line with the previous leg up. The retrace taking 1/3 of the previous trend leg down would seek 4800 support next – albeit by a wick on the daily scale.
BTC is currently a No Play – Needs firm support and confirmation of the continuation of the trend up with higher highs and higher lows on the hourly scale.
Futures Traders- Trade the Trend. The short-term trend is currently sideways(15-minute scale). No trade scenario until break higher/lower.

Trading Crypto: **Tuesday Afternoon: Bitcoin Channel Is The Story, Is The Breakout Higher Or Lower?

Bitcoin now holds the 6400 support area again as the teeter-totter price action discussed previously now comes to light. BTC continues to trade sideways within the channel it refuses to break out of just yet. With a re-test of the 6250 mark(6230 US CST overnight trading) low, there is confirmation of the channel keeping price action steady as the 6400 support area continues to be rigorously tested. Multiple tests now with no breakdown nor up indicate pure indecision, even with the overall downtrend fully intact.

Rogue* Wave Analysis indicates that this “retrace” of sorts after the big run-up is still held to less than 1/2 of the previous leg up – a sign that there is potential for another 600 point leg up if support continues to hold at 6400. The current short-term trend remains down as lower highs and lower lows continue, even though support now holds and 6250 has been tested thoroughly and remains unbroken.
Stochastic readings show indecision on the mid-scale and attempt to continue up daily, but the better indication at the moment is MACD on the daily which now crosses up for the first time since June.
BTC is currently a hold – downside protection below support.
Futures Traders – trade their trend. The short-term trend is currently sideways – No Trade until pattern breakout.

Bitcoin Continues To Trade Sideways; ‘Easy Pickin’s’ For Scalpers

Bitcoin continues to trade within the bounds of the sideways channel. The upper limit stands at 6600, with the lower resting at 6250. This is, as discussed before, the 1/2 retracement point of the previous leg up. BTC is now also in the process of testing the 6400 support area as it has been in a struggle to maintain this level after keeping the 6k support area firm. This has been one of the main issues when trying to break higher as the 6400 support area has been tested multiple times in just the span of a few days.

Weekend trading was tight with lower volatility for BTC overall, and the range has been kept to the channel. Additionally, an expanding megaphone pattern was formed within the channel which currently remains active on the hourly and lower scales. The downside of this pattern also lines up with the lower trend line of the channel at 6250. The other line to continue to be aware of as time passes is the upper* trend line of the mid-term bearish channel that BTC has traded on the outside of. This is shown on the 4-hour chart.
Patterns within the pattern are the name of the game with BTC at the moment and continue to be the major factor in determining pivot points while maintaining the overall bearish trend.
Support and Resistance levels have and continue to play a key role in providing BTC with stability. Low levels of volatility are only briefly interrupted by spikes, therefore, be aware of how your stop losses are placed at this time.
Stochastic levels do seek higher pathways but look a bit sideways for the day – indicating that there will likely be much channel movement to continue testing the 6400 support mark.
MACD momentum actually ticks positively on every time scale. However, price action is not following with new. highs nor breakouts of any kind. Be aware of this divergence.
BTC is currently a No Play. For those holding – place downside protection under support.
Futures Traders – trade the trend. The short-term trend is sideways. No Trade scenario until pattern/trend is once again confirmed*.

Bitcoin Continues To Test Support And Resistance; ‘Channel Surfing’ Remains The Theme

Bitcoin travels to resistance once again and hits a hard line of rejection. Yesterday’s trading in the early morning (US CST) saw price action hit the 6600 level as it did once before to affirm that the channel BTC now trades in remains active. The drop-down has not sought out the lower support area at 6250 just yet, however, remains on course to do just that at the moment.

Now with two tests of the support and resistance line, the channel remains perfect. As the price has taken an overall pivot from recent lows breaking the 6k support level, there is danger in the fact that support is now holding firm at 6400 – just a hair away from those low levels.

This concern is also compounded by the fact that stochastic levels hourly have pivoted in the overbought(>80) region. Seeking oversold(<20) levels once again, look for the downside to continue unless hard support is made. The downside risk is high as the trend remains bearish with an overall downtrend still active on the long-term charts and no new highs being made over the weekend. Lower highs and lower lows continue, and a new low challenging the 6250 mark will likely spell trouble with BTC seeking the 6k mark again.
MACD levels continue to slide down.
BTC is currently a No Play.